Thursday, March 30, 2023

Capital Markets: "Dollar Soft but Stretched"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: While bank stress seems to continue to ease, the dollar languishes against most of the major currencies. The Japanese yen is the notable exception. It is off about 1.5% this week. The Dollar Index has given back the gains scored at the end of last week but remains inside the range set last Thursday and Friday (~101.90-102.35). Perhaps the participants are waiting for Friday. In addition to month-, quarter, and fiscal-year ends, it is jammed with important data points: China's PMI, Tokyo's CPI, eurozone's CPI, and US PCE deflator.

Outside of Tokyo, the large equity markets in the Asia Pacific traded with a firmer bias earlier today, led by Australia's 1% gain. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up nearly 1% as well and bank index is up 2.3% to bring this week's recovery to about 7%. US futures are extending yesterday's gains. Europe's benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 bp lower, while the 10-year Treasury yield is flat near 3.56%. In the foreign exchange market, only the Scandis are struggling to rise against the greenback. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched for most of other G10 currencies. Emerging market currencies are higher (Turkey and Thailand are the exceptions), led by central and eastern European currencies today, ahead of the Latam session. Gold is firm but still consolidating inside Tuesday's range (~$1949-$1975). May WTI is trading a little higher but holding below yesterday's high near $74.35. The $74.65 area corresponds to the (61.8%) retracement of the slide since the March 7 high (~$81.05)....

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