Friday, March 31, 2023

Capital Markets—"March: Going Out like A Lamb after Wrestling with a Lion"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The banking stress that roiled the markets this month has eased. However, the emergency lending by the Federal Reserve, vias the discount window and new Bank Term Funding Program hardly slowed in the past week ($152.6 bln vs. $163.9 bln). Money markets took in more funds. Almost $305 bln has flowed to them over the past three weeks. The US KBW bank index is up 3.75% this week coming into day (after pulling back 1.2% yesterday). Europe's Stoxx 600 bank index is snapping a four-day advance today but is up nearly 6.2% this week. The Topix bank index in Japan rose 2% this week. 

Asia Pacific and European equities are finishing the month on a firm note, and US futures are slightly positive. Bond market are mostly little changed today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is near 3.56%, up a few basis points this week, while European yields are up 14-18 bp on the week. Two-year yields are up around 25 bp in Europe this week and about 16 bp in the US. The dollar is paring this week's losses today and is up again nearly all the G10 currencies. The Dollar Index is firmer but is poised to finish the week lower, and this would be the third consecutive weekly decline. Emerging market currencies are mostly higher against the dollar today, with the notable exception of eastern and central Europe. Gold is hovering near its best level for the week, reached today near $1985, before slipping toward $1973 as the US dollar recovered from its early weakness. May WTI is little changed around $74.25, which is near a two-week high and the (61.8%) retracement of the loss since the month's high (~$81) was recorded on March 7....

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