Following on the point made by Joe Carson in "Inverted Yield Curve Not A Sufficient Condition For Recession-Credit Growth & Rate Levels Matter Too" I thought I'd look at large bank lending and damn, things still look loosey-goosey.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED database, here's 27 years of data, covering the last three recessions:
Astute reader will note that C&I lending turned down prior to what was later determined to be the start date of two of the recessions and in the third case didn't turn down until the mid-point of the 2008 recession.
Takeaway? If we seen a decrease in loan volume we are either approaching or in a recession.
And just so you know the intent is not to cherry-pick using the large bank data, here's the chart for all banks. The angle of ascent is even steeper.
