Sometimes I think McLuhan could see the future:
Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century
Biotechnology
Decision support systems (DSSs) and technologies
Directed energy
Hypersonic systems
Information- and perception-manipulation technologies
Quantum information and sensing systems
Robotics and semi- and autonomous systems....
....Information- and Perception-Manipulation Technologies
Information- and perception-manipulation technologies cover a wide range of tools designed to distort the perception or beliefs of one individual or set of individuals for the purpose of achieving the perpetrator’s desired effect. These technologies are generally enabled by AI and aspects of cyber and rely on processing large amounts of data. In the context of international security, this set of technologies enables adversaries to conduct advanced influence operations. For purposes of this report, we examine four mechanisms through which information can be modified, with the goal of influencing or misleading targeted individuals or groups: (1) deepfakes, (2) microtargeting, (3) machine learning–driven programs, and (4) spoofing algorithms.
Deepfakes are “realistic photo, audio, video, and other forgeries generated with artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.”14 The word deepfake itself is recent, dating back to late 2017. Although forgeries have always existed, AI makes them much more sophisticated and harder to differentiate from a genuine photo or video. Making deepfakes is also relatively cheap and easy, broadening the scope of individuals and organizations that can engage in this activity.Microtargeting requires access to large amounts of detailed information on individuals to identify highly specific audiences that can be targeted by a message tailored to match their profile and increase the relevance of the message being communicated. An important characteristic of such “micro-audiences” thus is not so much size as homogeneity—all members of the audience share one or more characteristics that the sender seeks to exploit.15
Generally used as an advertising tactic, microtargeting can also be used to make phishing attacks more effective by targeting only the most “valuable” (from the attacker’s perspective) individuals in a given company or organization (known as “whaling attacks”).16Machine learning refers to a process that involves statistical algorithms that replicate human cognitive tasks by deriving their own procedures through analysis of large training data sets. During the training process, the computer system creates its own statistical model to accomplish the specified task in situations it has not previously encountered.17
More-advanced forms of machine learning are referred to as deep learning, meaning the algorithm is able to analyze more-complex forms of data and detect more nuance (for instance, identifying images of a car versus a bus or understanding the sentiment behind a given passage of text). Machine learning is considered to be a subfield of AI because it is the process that enables computers to learn how to complete tasks on their own rather than simply executing commands written by humans. One notable application of machine learning has been the development of bots, which are computer programs designed to emulate human behavior, particularly in online interactions. Other applications include speech recognition, image recognition, robotics, and reasoning.
Spoofing refers to a form of interference that seeks to obscure or falsify the true source of information (often through impersonation) or replace a stream of information with false or malicious content. Common types of spoofing include caller ID spoofing, email spoofing, media access control (MAC) or Internet Protocol (IP) address spoofing, and Global Positioning System (GPS) spoofing. Caller ID spoofing is the simplest form of spoofing and occurs when “a caller deliberately falsifies the information transmitted to your caller ID display to disguise their identity.”18Email spoofing is similar in nature and entails manipulating an email to make it look like it came from a different, trusted source rather than the true sender. GPS spoofing is a more sophisticated form of spoofing that consists of “an intentional intervention that aims to force a GPS receiver to acquire and track invalid navigation data.”19
This type of spoofing works by generating false GPS signals to deceive satellite-based navigation systems—collectively referred to as Global Navigation Satellite Systems—into believing they are located somewhere other than their actual position. Box 4.6 summarizes the potential military applications of manipulation technologies.
Box 4.6Manipulation techniques like the ones just discussed could be used to undermine national will in crisis or war by portraying political or military leaders engaging in embarrassing, illegal, or otherwise reprehensible behavior. They could be used as part of traditional deception and concealment operations or connected to much broader and longer-term efforts to undermine the societal coherence of an adversary.....
Some of the footnotes:
14 Kelley M. Sayler and Laurie A. Harris, Deep Fakes and National Security, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, October 14, 2019, updated June 8, 2021.
15 Tom Dobber, Ronald Ó. Fathaig, and Frederik J. Zuiderveen Borgesius, “The Regulation of Online Political Micro-Targeting in Europe,” Internet Policy Review, Vol. 8, No. 4, December 2019, pp. 2–3.
16 See, for example, United Kingdom Government, National Cyber Security Centre, “Whaling: How it Works, and What Your Organisation Can Do About It,” webpage, October 6, 2016.
17 Kelley M. Sayler, Artificial Intelligence and National Security, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, November 21, 2019, p. 2, and Keith D. Foote, “A Brief History of Machine Learning,” Dataversity webpage, March 26, 2019.
Previously from RAND (there are many but this one is very topical):
...We've mentioned the RAND study a few times including before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Here's March 25:
The U.S. Is Implementing The RAND Corporation Strategy To Cripple Russia
First up, a refresher, from February 8:
The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself
I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:
1. Arming Ukraine ;
2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.
....MUCH MORE
The study is from 2019, its basic idea is to get Russia to overextend itself both militarily and more especially financially.
On January 12 Victoria Nuland showed this approach is top-of-mind in the Biden Administration. From Interfax Ukraine:
Nuland: I'm going to let Russians speak for themselves how long they can financially back placement of troops near Ukraine
U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland did not make assumptions about how long the Russian Federation can afford to keep a large grouping of forces near Ukraine.
"I am going to let the Russians speak for themselves," she said, answering a question at a State Department briefing about "how long you think Russia can financially back the placement of troops along the Russia-Ukrainian border."
Nuland also said the transfer of a large group of forces to the border with Ukraine was not a cheap operation.
"These kind of deployments, hundred thousand troops out of barracks and on the Ukrainian border are extremely expensive, as is the deployment of this kind of weaponry in the cold winter," she said.
The U.S. goal is not peace in Ukraine.
The U.S. goal is regime change in Moscow, and in furtherance of that objective the U.S. is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian.
