This area is one of the major foci of the 2019 RAND corporation plan to destabilize Russia and bring about regime change. See after the jump.
And speaking of regime change, after the abortive coup in Kazakhstan (it was in January, remember?) the action appears to have shifted to Tajikistan:
via Maps-Asia
Tajikistan: Crisis-gripped government opts to pick deadly fight in the Pamirs
And Human Rights Watch, May 18:
Tajikistan: Tensions Escalating in Autonomous Region
Respect Rights to Freedom of Assembly, Media
Finally, the headline story from Asia Times, May 15:
America making moves and promoting values in strategic region while Russia is concentrated on Ukraine
Russia’s allies in Central Asia appear to be slowly distancing themselves from the Kremlin, an emerging shift born of the war in Ukraine.
While Moscow is preoccupied with its “special military operation” in Ukraine, other regional and global actors are seeking to boost their influence in a region that has traditionally been in Russia’s geopolitical orbit.
The United States – Russia’s major rival in the emerging new Cold War – has developed a new strategy for Central Asia that aims to “promote American values and provide a counterbalance to the influence of regional neighbors.”
Moscow, for its part, claims that it “has not and does not regard the region as an arena for geopolitical confrontation,” said Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko during a plenary session of the Inter-Parliamentary Forum of Central Asian countries and the Russian Federation on May 12.
So does Matvienko’s pronouncement mean that the Kremlin has already given up protecting its strategic interests in Central Asia? “Russia traditionally respects the right of the states of the region to sovereign development and welcomes trends towards strengthening intraregional integration,”said Matvienko.
Sensing an opening, Washington is now bidding to strengthen its relatively modest positions in the region. On May 10, the US Ambassador to Tajikistan John Mark Pommersheim said that the US would allocate US$60 million to Tajikistan for security. The assistance would include $20 million worth of Puma reconnaissance drones.
The US Embassy in Dushanbe has already provided eight IVECO trucks, tires and related spare parts to Tajikistan’s Ministry of Defense, valued at $2.3 million. Moreover, the United States also plans to build a border checkpoint on the Tajik-Afghan border and an additional outpost for 900 military personnel and their families on the border with Afghanistan.
Tajikistan is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and is economically dependent on Moscow. Migrant remittances from Russia fuel the economy of Central Asia’s poorest state; it is estimated that around one million Tajik citizens live and work in the Russian Federation....
....MUCH MORE
We've mentioned the RAND study a few times including before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Here's March 25:
The U.S. Is Implementing The RAND Corporation Strategy To Cripple Russia
First up, a refresher, from February 8:
The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself
I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:
1. Arming Ukraine ;
2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.
....MUCH MORE
The study is from 2019, its basic idea is to get Russia to overextend itself both militarily and more especially financially.
On January 12 Victoria Nuland showed this approach is top-of-mind in the Biden Administration. From Interfax Ukraine:
Nuland: I'm going to let Russians speak for themselves how long they can financially back placement of troops near Ukraine
U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland did not make assumptions about how long the Russian Federation can afford to keep a large grouping of forces near Ukraine.
"I am going to let the Russians speak for themselves," she said, answering a question at a State Department briefing about "how long you think Russia can financially back the placement of troops along the Russia-Ukrainian border."
Nuland also said the transfer of a large group of forces to the border with Ukraine was not a cheap operation.
"These kind of deployments, hundred thousand troops out of barracks and on the Ukrainian border are extremely expensive, as is the deployment of this kind of weaponry in the cold winter," she said.
The U.S. goal is not peace in Ukraine.
The U.S. goal is regime change in Moscow, and in furtherance of that objective the U.S. is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian.
Finally from Professor Niall Ferguson (who is developing a consultancy practice. he's a history professor, that has to be a unique challenge)* at Bloomberg Opinion, March 22, 2022.....
