From Columbia Uni./IRI, May 19:
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
In mid-May, Sea Surface Temperatures remain below-average (strengthening slightly) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific....
....MUCH MORE
All three of the aggregate model run lines - thick Red, Blue Green - show the temperature of the NINO 3.4 region below -0.5°C.
*La Niña "conditions" begin at a half-degree below the zero line while a full blown La Niña is declared after three rolling three month periods (five consecutive months) below -0.5°C.
Here is CPC/IRI's interactive graph of the plumes.
We'll have more before the official start to the season, June 1.
