This report begins with some history that can't help but be eye-opening for newbs and old-timers alike, and then moves on to thumbnail descriptions of the current state of affairs.
Mr. Bernreuter's operation knows as much about this stuff as anyone outside of China, maybe inside as well.
From Bernreuter Research:
Once upon a time, there were seven sisters who lived in four countries … You think this is a fairy tale? No – for two decades, the polysilicon industry consisted of just seven manufacturers, who bore the nickname “Seven Sisters.” In 2005, however, this oligopoly began to crumble. Learn how far OCI in South Korea and the largest polysilicon manufacturers in China have caught up with the Western incumbents Wacker and Hemlock, and who the top ten polysilicon manufacturers in the world are today....
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Three of the four mentioned companies have now gained promotion to the 80,000 MT league, which Wacker and GCL-Poly have already been playing in. Thus, a top group of the “Big Six” will form a new polysilicon super league in the industry (see chart).
Polysilicon capacities of the Big Six in 2020
Six manufacturers will form a new polysilicon super league – Chart: Bernreuter Research
This group alone reached a production capacity of 470,000 MT in 2020 – almost as much as all polysilicon manufacturers had in total worldwide at the end of 2015. It makes obvious what tremendous pressure the capacity of the Big Six puts on other manufacturers of solar-grade polysilicon; only a few of them will survive.
But even among the Big Six, competition will be intense. With their extremely low production costs, the five Chinese top manufacturers are putting Wacker under pressure anyway. OCI has already hoisted the white flag of surrender with the shutdown of its Korean factory. The climate is getting tougher in the polysilicon industry.
The polysilicon manufacturers in our top-ten list are not ranked according to production capacity, but to actual output in 2020. In some cases, the production capacity is significantly higher than output if the capacity has not yet been fully ramped up. Seven of the top ten manufacturers are based in China....
