Tuesday, July 27, 2021

"Cloud Computing’s Coming Energy Crisis" (AMZN; GOOG; MSFT: AAPL; FB)

 From IEEE Spectrum, July 21:

The cloud’s electricity needs are growing unsustainably

How much of our computing now happens in the cloud? A lot. Providers of public cloud services alone take in more than a quarter of a trillion U.S. dollars a year. That’s why Amazon, Google, and Microsoft maintain massive data centers all around the world. Apple and Facebook, too, run similar facilities, all stuffed with high-core-count CPUs, sporting terabytes of RAM and petabytes of storage.

These machines do the heavy lifting to support what’s been called “surveillance capitalism”: the endless tracking, user profiling, and algorithmic targeting used to distribute advertising. All that computing rakes in a lot of dollars, of course, but it also consumes a lot of watts: Bloomberg recently estimated that about 1 percent of the world’s electricity goes to cloud computing.

That figure is poised to grow exponentially over the next decade. Bloomberg reckons that, globally, we might exit the 2020s needing as much as 8 percent of all electricity to power the future cloud. That might seem like a massive jump, but it’s probably a conservative estimate. After all, by 2030, with hundreds of millions of augmented-reality spectacles streaming real-time video into the cloud, and with the widespread adoption of smart digital currencies seamlessly blending money with code, the cloud will provide the foundation for nearly every financial transaction and user interaction with data.

How much energy can we dedicate to all this computing? In an earlier time, we could have relied on Moore’s Law to keep the power budget in check as we scaled up our computing resources. But now, as we wring out the last bits of efficiency from the final few process nodes before we reach atomic-scale devices, those improvements will hit physical limits. It won’t be long until computing and power consumption will once again be strongly coupled—as they were 60 years ago, before integrated CPUs changed the game....