From Reuters via Ag.com's Successful Farming, May 28:
Goldman Sachs said it no longer saw China as the center of commodities pricing, reasoning the pace of demand recovery in developed markets suggested Beijing as a buyer has been crowded out by Western consumers.
"The bullish commodity thesis is neither about Chinese speculators nor Chinese demand growth. It is about scarcity and the DM-led recovery," the bank said in a note dated May 27.
While commodity prices fell after Chinese warnings over onshore speculation, "the fundamental path in key commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans remains orientated towards incremental tightness in H2, with scant evidence of a supply response sufficient to derail this bull market."
The market is beginning to reflect this, as copper prices are increasingly driven by Western manufacturing data rather their Chinese counterparts, it said.
"This is a role reversal from the bull market of the 2000's, with China now the incumbent consumer as the U.S. was when emerging Chinese demand squeezed out marginal U.S consumers," Goldman said.
China is the world's biggest market for copper, coal and iron ore.
Earlier this month, China's cabinet said Beijing would manage "unreasonable" price increases for copper, coal, steel, and iron ore....
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