I'm tellin' ya, keep an eye on China - Vietnam relations.*
From the South China Morning Post, January 16:
Wang Yi has visited nine of the 10 Asean countries in recent months, but tensions with Beijing made Hanoi a no-go zone, according to the experts
As the only Southeast Asian nation to take on Beijing over the South China Sea and management of the Mekong River, Vietnam has become a focal point in the tensions between the US and China
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi wrapped up his latest trip to Southeast Asia on Saturday, during which he sought to stabilise relations in the region ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden as US president. But of the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Wang has visited in recent months, one was conspicuously missing: Vietnam.It is hardly a coincidence, according to diplomatic observers, as China has moved Asean up in its foreign policy priorities in recent months in the midst of its spiralling geopolitical rivalry with the US, Europe and America’s allies and partners in Asia-Pacific.
While Asean overtook the European Union as China’s top trading partner last year,Vietnam replaced Germany as China’s sixth-largest trading partner, thanks to the surging two-way trade between Beijing and Hanoi despite strained political ties and the coronavirus pandemic.Observers say Wang skipping Vietnam lays bare the growing antagonism and tensions between the old Communist allies over their South China Sea dispute, which have been compounded by the US factor and uncertainties over internal power politics in Hanoi.
Also, unlike many Asean countries that have shown enthusiasm for Chinese-made Covid-19 vaccines, which have been a main feature of Wang’s regional diplomacy, Vietnam has adopted a more diversified strategy in its negotiations of buying products from Britain, the US, Russia and China.However, according to Zhang Mingliang, a Southeast Asian affairs expert at Jinan University in Guangzhou, Vietnam was the first Asean nation to move to reject Chinese telecoms giant Huawei Technologies and close its China border in the wake of the pandemic.
Apart from Vietnam’s grievances over China’s perceived bullying in the maritime dispute and the soaring anti-Chinese sentiments, the biggest variable in bilateral ties is the upcoming leadership transition in one of the world’s most secretive political systems.
The 13th national congress of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party to be held later this month will decide the country’s new leadership and how it will steer through the fast changing regional geopolitics....
*****
....As the only Southeast Asian nation to take on China both over the South China Sea and management of the Mekong River, Vietnam has become a focal point in the US-China wrangling.....
....MUCH MORE
June 2020"Report: Chinese Vessel Rams Vietnamese Fishing Boat in S. China Sea"
I'm tellin' ya, China wants their military to get some battle experience before they do anything with Taiwan and Vietnam looks like a target.*
*If interested see:
June 2019
Vietnam Rising: "US-China trade war pushing Vietnam’s manufacturing industry to capacity"
A major piece on the country The Diplomat says will be the testing ground for China's military, prior to an invasion of Taiwan. See last month's "China Will Attack Vietnam".May 2020
Throw in Vietnam's undeveloped rare earth resource base, tied with Brazil for #2 in the world (combined they match China) and the risk it poses to China's lock on prices and Vietnam has suddenly gotten very interesting.
Oh, and China is still smarting from being unable to achieve their goals during the 1979 invasion of Vietnam....
"Butterfly Effect: China’s Real Target Is Taiwan"
May 16, 2019
China Will Attack Vietnam
Oh sure, now that General Giap is dead.*
From The Diplomat:
Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He formerly served as the daily intelligence briefer to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs at the Pentagon.Vietnam Is the Chinese Military’s Preferred Warm-Up Fight...
At some point, the Chinese military will need to test its new capabilities – and Vietnam is likely the preferred adversary....
When the Chinese stopped laughing they reflected and gave thanks it wasn't Vietnam making the threat....He outlived all his adversaries.
***...The Vietnam line is in reference to the fact that General Võ Nguyên Giáp, possibly the greatest general of the 20th century, defeated in turn, the French empire, the U.S.A. Cambodia and China in 1954, 1975, 1978 and 1979 respectively.
That last conflict was the result of China's invasion of Vietnam in an attempt to force Vietnam out of Cambodia which Vietnam had invaded in 1978, putting Pol Pot and the Kmer Rouge génocidaires out of business. It didn't work, Vietnam stayed in Cambodia until 1989.
The General died in 2013 age 102.
