From the Energy Information Administration:
In the News:
Warm weather and high storage levels kept natural gas prices low this winter
From October 2020 to January 2021, the price of natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $2.52 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence. Aside from October 2019–January 2020, when the Henry Hub price averaged $2.25/MMBtu, October 2020–January 2021 had the lowest October to January average Henry Hub price since the winter of 2015–16. Since the start of this winter heating season, mild weather, high levels of natural gas in storage, and relatively strong natural gas production contributed to low prices at Henry Hub and other natural gas pricing points across the United States. EIA considers the winter heating season to run from October through March.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported 2,344 natural gas-weighted heating degree days (HDDs) for the United States from October 2020–January 2021, a decline of 22 HDDs (1%) from the 10-year (2011–2020) October–January average. The 2020–21 winter has been milder than last year’s winter as of the end of January. Although January 2020 was the second-warmest January since 2000, the 2020–21 winter heating season has had 145 fewer HDDs than last year’s winter heating season through the end of January.
Working natural gas in storage began the withdrawal season (November–March) at 3,920 billion cubic feet, the third-highest level recorded at the start of the withdrawal season, and the mild weather has limited withdrawals and kept natural gas storage levels higher than the five-year (2016–20) average. In addition, dry natural gas production so far this withdrawal season averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to IHS Markit estimates, which is second only to the record-high average production of 95.6 Bcf/d during the same period in 2019–20.
Natural gas prices in the United States tend to spike in winter months, particularly in New England, when natural gas supply becomes constrained during cold spells, resulting in correspondingly higher prices at the Algonquin Citygate near Boston, Massachusetts. This winter, however, the Algonquin Citygate price averaged $4.43/MMBtu between December and January, 38% lower than the five-year (2016–2020) December and January average of $7.18/MMBtu, and only exceeded the five-year average price on eight days during this period.
Although the winter weather through January 2021 was mild, February weather began considerably colder. NOAA forecasts below-normal temperatures across most of the United States through the second week of February amid a polar vortex affecting a large portion of the United States. Based on these expectations, the prices at Henry Hub increased to $3.39/MMBtu as of February 5....
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.... U.S. LNG exports decrease week over week. Nineteen LNG vessels (seven from Sabine Pass, four each from Corpus Christi and Freeport, three from Cameron, and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 69 Bcf departed the United States between February 4 and February 10, 2021, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.....
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