A few days ago I mentioned one of the quirks of the European carbon markets, the lower the temperature goes the higher the price for a EUA (one tonne of CO2). Another quirk is that during very cold weather, caused by a high pressure area sitting over a region, the wind doesn't blow. Meaning the wind turbines don't turn. This has happened in Britain and in Texas as well, sometimes for days on end.
And there are other quirks, maybe I shouldn't call them quirks because it is basic engineering. Here's the system operator in Texas, April 14:
News Release
February 14, 2021Grid operator requests energy conservation for system reliabilityAUSTIN, TX, Feb. 14, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is asking consumers and businesses to reduce their electricity use as much as possible Sunday, Feb. 14 through Tuesday, Feb. 16.
"We are experiencing record-breaking electric demand due to the extreme cold temperatures that have gripped Texas," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "At the same time, we are dealing with higher-than-normal generation outages due to frozen wind turbines and limited natural gas supplies [freeze-off] available to generating units. We are asking Texans to take some simple, safe steps to lower their energy use during this time."
Here are some tips to reduce electricity use:
- Turn down thermostats to 68-degrees.
- Close shades and blinds to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.
- Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.
- Avoid using large appliances (i.e., ovens, washing machines, etc.).
- Businesses should minimize the use of electric lighting and electricity-consuming equipment as much as possible.
- Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.
Given the prolonged, below-freezing temperatures, conservation measures should be implemented safely and within reason.
ERCOT has the tools and procedures in place to maintain a reliable electric system during tight grid conditions. If power reserves drop too low, ERCOT may need to declare an Energy Emergency Alert, or EEA. Declaring an EEA allows the grid operator to take advantage of additional resources that are only available during scarcity conditions. There are three levels of EEA, and rotating outages are only implemented as a last resort to maintain reliability of the electric system.
Click here for more information on ERCOT’s emergency procedures during tight grid conditions.
Click here for more information on the additional tools and resources available to ERCOT when it declares an EEA....MORE
And here is ERCOT's front page with the supply/demand picture.
And the headline story from Bloomberg:
The arctic freeze gripping the central U.S. is raising the specter of power outages in Texas and ratcheting up pressure on energy prices already trading at unprecedented levels.
In Texas, where temperatures in Dallas are forecast to be 3 degrees Fahrenheit Monday (minus 16 Celsius), the operator of the state’s power grid warned it may need to resort to rolling blackouts as surging demand for heat strains the electrical system. While outages may occur Sunday, the risk is higher on Monday and Tuesday, when officials expect power demand in Texas to reach a record high.
“We could be in emergency operations as early as tonight,” said Dan Woodfin, a senior director for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which runs the grid. “We would expect to be in emergency operations tomorrow through at least Tuesday morning.”
About 800 daily records for cold temperatures have been set in the past week as Arctic air pushes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, sending gyrations through energy markets. Spot prices for electricity in Texas are expected to hit the grid’s cap of $9,000 per megawatt hour. Natural gas rose to a record $600 per million British thermal units in Oklahoma. And as much as half a million barrels a day of oil output in West Texas may be impacted by well shutdowns that began on Thursday because of the extreme cold.
“It is a pretty brutal air mass,” said Bob Oravec, senior branch forecaster at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center. “The cold air is entrenched across the middle part of the country. High temperatures are amazingly cold, some 50 degrees below average.”
Through early Sunday, the coldest spot in the U.S. was 25 miles east of Ely, Minnesota, where readings fell to -50 degrees Fahrenheit. As of 7 a.m. New York time, 2,653 flights around the U.S. through Monday had been canceled, the majority in Dallas and Houston, according to FlightAware, an airline tracking service.
Temperatures fell so far below forecasts in parts of the central and western U.S. that physical gas prices soared from California to the Rockies, with one hub in Cheyenne, Wyoming, reaching as high as $350 per mmBtu, according to traders who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public....
....MUCH MORE
Meanwhile, in Braemar Scotland it got down to -22.9° C which works out to a comparatively balmy -9°F
As the young urban troubadours say, "dammmm."
