Thursday, November 5, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: Prices Break Down Through $3.00

Tomorrow, the Weekly Update and some experimental weather forecasts from NOAA that proved to be bettable last year.

 First up, the estimates going in, via FX Empire:

....NGI [Natural Gas Intelligence] is predicting a withdrawal of about 28 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from a pull of 22 Bcf to 38 Bcf, with a median 31 Bcf decrease. A Reuters poll found estimates ranging from a withdrawal of 10 Bcf to 38 Bcf and a median decrease of 27 Bcf.....

And the report from the Energy Information Administration: 

Working gas in storage was 3,919 Bcf as of Friday, October 30, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 36 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 200 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 201 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,718 Bcf. At 3,919 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. 

NOTE that due to the recent extreme cold snap, gas in storage has broken below the top of the five-year range for the first time in months:

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.gif

And the price action over the last week up to and including today's report::

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nJizGpKt/