Thursday, November 19, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

 First up, the estimates going in to the release, from FX Empire:

....According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), “A Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from a withdrawal of 9 Bcf to an injection [!] of 26 Bcf, with a median of a 22 Bcf increase. A Reuters poll found estimates spanning from a pull of 22 Bcf to an increase to an increase of 27 Bcf and a median of a 19 Bcf injection. A Wall Street Journal poll, meanwhile, landed at an average injection of 10 Bcf, though estimates ranged from a decrease of 25 Bcf to an increase of 22 Bcf.”

“Though there is a gulf between low and high estimates, the midpoint of each survey calls for a modest increase, which would mark a departure from seasonal norms. The five-year average is a pull of 24 Bcf.”

Energy Aspects issued a preliminary estimate for a 19 Bcf build. The firm pointed to warm weather during the week and estimated a 40% deficit in heating degree days for the week versus the 10-year average.”

NGI is modeling a 23 Bcf injection for the report.”...

And from the Energy Information Administration:


Working gas in storage was 3,958 Bcf as of Friday, November 13, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 31 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 293 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 231 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,727 Bcf. At 3,958 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range....MORE

Finally a week of price action (30 minute candles) from the CME. The day's range, 2.744 / 2.525 (not the range shown at the top of the chart, that's the range for the last bar) the day's range is big enough to bankrupt some traders: