From Creighton's Heider College of Business, November 2:
October survey highlights:
- The regional Business Conditions Index expanded to its highest level in 16 years.
- Almost 78.6% of supply managers reported shortages of qualified workers to fill open positions at their firms in October.
- Very strong export and import readings for the month.
- Employment gauge soared to its highest level in more than two decades.
- More than three of four supply managers reported negative covid-19 impacts.
OMAHA, Neb. (November 2, 2020) – For the fifth straight month, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, advanced above growth neutral, and to its highest level since 2004.
Overall index: The October Business Conditions Index, which ranges between 0 and 100, increased to 70.2 from September’s 65.1. In April of this year, Covid-19 pushed the overall index to its lowest level in 11 years. Since April, the overall index has risen six consecutive months with five straight months above growth neutral 50.0.
“Creighton’s monthly survey results have mirrored the national manufacturing survey results indicating that the manufacturing sector has been expanding at a very healthy pace since sinking to a post-2008 recession low in April. Even so, current output in the regional and U.S. manufacturing sectors remains below pre-COVID-19 levels. More than three of four supply managers reported negative COVID-19 impacts,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.
Employment: The regional employment index moved well above growth neutral for October to its highest level in more than two decades, climbing to 66.7 from 61.8 in September. Prior to COVID-19, the insured unemployment rate for the region stood at 1.3%. It reached a high of 11.0% in May and has fallen to 2.9% in October.
Almost eight of 10, or 78.6% of supply managers reported shortages of qualified workers to fill open positions at their firms in October. As stated by one supply manager, “Very competitive for entry level staff and company is having to adjust scale wages.”
Other comments from October survey participants include:
Very difficult to predict economy. Need to remain flexible; manage risks; and respond quickly to changes.
Workers do not want to do physical labor anymore.
As with previous surveys, my positive position on the economy six months out is dependent upon retention of the Trump Administration.
Wholesale Prices: The wholesale inflation gauge for the month rose to 76.8 from 71.5 in September.
Said one supply manager, “Raw material (steel) is getting in tight supply, so prices are on the rise.”...
....MUCH MORE
