Odyssey to the East
The shift of power in post-coronavirus Europe
The Polish have a saying, “nie mój cyrk, nie moje malpy”, which translates to: “Not my circus, not my monkeys”.
The country has made huge and largely unnoticed economic strides since communism retreated from its borders, with the Palace of Culture and Science looming over Warsaw as a testament to Stalin’s lost grip on the region, his name struck off the placard before the building was completed.....MUCH MORE
Now, with Western Europe divided over the issue of eurobonds to help save its southern half from coronavirus, a near hundred-year old political concept is bieng dusted off to transfer power to the east: The Intermarium.
Poland is unique as the only country in the Eurozone which did not dive into recession in the wake of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008, enjoying an uninterrupted stream of economic growth, averaging 4.2% annually between 1992 and 2019.
It also has one other economic force going for it, the fact that it does not use the euro.
It is too early to tell how individual European countries will recover from the global coronavirus crisis, but even if the disease were to disappear tomorrow it is already clear that southern Europe is going to need drastic support from the Northern European countries.
The EU members hit hardest by the virus are calling for the socialisation of debt via Eurobonds (also called coronabonds in the popular press).
Now, as the seventh largest economy in Europe, Poland is able to increasingly look sideways at the ongoing circus starting from the doldrums of 2008 and culminating in the final performance which is the economic collapse taking place in 2020.
As the lines of divide between northern and southern European continue to deepen, Poland will claim fewer and fewer monkeys in the show as its own.
The New Hanseatic League
The splintering of Europe was already beginning to show itself before the coronavirus hit. At the end of 2017, at the initiative of the Netherlands and Ireland, some countries in the second group met to discuss economic policy.
The alliance formed at the meeting included the euro states Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and the two countries which did not use the euro: Denmark and Sweden.
Later, it named itself the New Hanseatic League, and in a statement on March, 6, 2018 declared it was open to non-euro states, but with an emphasis on maintaining an internal monetary union.
The German institute for International and Security Affairs wrote on January 2019 that “the new alliance, which is becoming increasingly formalised, could take effect at [an EU] Council level, not only attempting to block proposals from other euro states, but also working towards curbing Franco-German dominance.”
One of the main aims of the New Hanseatic League (NHL) is to reduce the governments’ reliance on the banking sector, which, as the world showed in 2008, means that the union’s economic wellbeing is tied to the health of the global financial system.
This new northern-based union is having its legs kicked out before it even stands upright, though, because its main sponsor, the UK, is leaving. The Capital Markets Union - the initiative started to try and stop over reliance on banks - was started in 2015, a year before the Brexit referendum.
While the new league in the north will struggle to plug the UK-shaped hole and draw influence away from the Franco-German sphere, their neighbours in the south of Europe will call louder for the further socialisation of European debt as a means to support Italy and Spain after the coronavirus crisis.
The United States of Europe....
Related:
Some Interesting Questions: "The Shadow War Playing Out Behind The COVID-19 Crisis"
We've mentioned the Three Seas Initiative a few times:
Poland's Plan To Dominate Europe, III: Here Comes China
Okay, I'll stop the "Dominate Europe" schtick.Poland's Plan to Dominate Europe II
In addition to the North-South Three Seas commerce route (below) there is something else going on that has grabbed the attention of the eurocrats....
That headline just cracks me up. As mentioned in one of the earlier posts, what Poland really wants is to just be left alone to sort out their own stuff but like any humor there is a grain of truth to it.Geopolitical Futures, 7/7/2017
And because of Poland's history the people have an almost genetically endowed talent for punching far above their weight-class (smaller population than California) in the diplomacy/strategy game.
First up in geopolitics ithe Intermarium or Three Seas Initiative, sort of Eastern Europe's version of the One Belt One Road plan:
