Thursday, April 23, 2020

EIA: "COVID-19 mitigation efforts result in the lowest U.S. petroleum consumption in decades"

Before we get to today's natural gas storage report, here is one of the reasons to believe the lows that natty hit on April 2 (1.521 on the current contract) were the bottom.
The decline in oil demand will result in reduced supply of the gas "associated" with that oil production.

From the Energy Information Administration's Today in Energy, Apr. 23:

U.S. weekly product supplied of petroleum products
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

U.S. consumption of petroleum products has fallen to its lowest level in decades because of measures that limit travel and because of the general economic slowdown induced by mitigation efforts for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the decline in petroleum product demand by examining the changes in total product supplied, EIA’s proxy for consumption. As outlined in EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, published yesterday, total petroleum demand averaged 14.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in the week ending April 17, up slightly from 13.8 million b/d in the previous week—the lowest level in EIA’s weekly data series, which dates back to the early 1990s. The most recent value is 31% lower than the 2020 average from January through March 13, or before many of the travel restrictions began.

In the week ending April 3, total U.S. product supplied of petroleum products fell by 3.4 million b/d, the largest weekly decline in EIA’s data series. Changes in the weeks since then (weeks ending April 10 and April 17) have been more muted, suggesting that consumption is stabilizing.

U.S. weekly product supplied of petroleum products
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Total petroleum demand measured as product supplied consists mostly of motor gasoline (45% of the 2019 total), distillate fuel oil (20%), jet fuel (9%), and chemical feedstocks and other fuels (26%). EIA uses estimates of product supplied from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) as a proxy for consumption because WPSR reports the amount of petroleum products that leaves the primary supply chain for ultimate delivery to consumers. The timing of changes in product supplied might not align with end-use consumption patterns because of variations in the timing of when respondents (such as refineries, importers, and bulk terminals) report movements of products within the primary supply chain....
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