April 27
231. The Hermit Kingdom in the Digital Era: Implications of the North Korean Problem for the SOF Community
[Editor’s Note: Today’s post welcomes back returning guest bloggers Colonel Montgomery Erfourth and Dr. Aaron Bazin, who identify and assess prospective patterns of emerging technology use in the 2020-2027 period by North Korea through the lens of the National Security Strategy and the Special Operations mission. Their assessment offers strategists and planners recommendations on how best to mitigate and address North Korea’s anticipated use of emerging technology against U.S. national interests. Enjoy!]
Introduction
It has been 75 years since the Korean Peninsula formed into two nations: the Soviet-backed Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the American-backed Republic of Korea (ROK), commonly referred to as North and South Korea, respectively.1 Since then, North Korea has seen three generations of the ruling Kim Dynasty, become a rogue nation subject to a range of sanctions by the United Nations (UN), and developed nuclear missiles, which it frequently threatens to use.2 While South Korea has flourished economically, the DPRK’s economy has remained stagnant and highly dependent on China, with an unusually high degree of reliance on criminal activity to generate income.3 Recent denuclearization talks between the White House and North Korean leadership, continued U.S. military presence in South Korea, and North Korea’s hostile behavior coupled with their Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and nuclear capabilities are clear signs that the U.S. will remain highly committed to countering the threat from North Korea.4
This post explores how North Korea may seek to leverage emerging technologies in the 2020-2027 timeframe to further its national interests, coerce the U.S. into making decisions favorable to North Korea, circumvent sanctions, pose new threats to the Homeland and U.S. interests in the region, and attempt to destabilize international security.....
*****..... Anticipated Technological Developments
Cyber Offensive Actions 2.0....MUCH MORE
Kim Jong-Il warned his military in 2003 that “If warfare was about bullets and oil until now, warfare in the 21st century is about information.”11 His son has the same appreciation for the information domain and has said, “Cyberwarfare is an all-purpose sword that guarantees the North Korean People’s Armed Forces ruthless striking capability, along with nuclear weapons and missiles.”12 Today, North Korea ranks among the world’s best in offensive cyber operations.13 With the notable Sony hack in retaliation of the Hollywood movie that mocked Kim Jong Un, they have also demonstrated their technical capability and their willingness to retaliate using cyber.14 As North Korea continues to improve its cyber offensive skills, it is likely that in the next seven years it will research the application of AI to automate cyber-attacks,15 such as malware16 and distributed denial-of-service attacks.17
As the U.S. builds its smart infrastructure across industries and further digitizes its economy, it will become increasingly vulnerable to such cyber-attacks in the coming years, creating a space for North Korea to leverage its cyber capabilities to apply pressure on U.S. political leadership. North Korea may continue to develop its cyber offensive capacity, which already has the potential to disrupt critical elements of the U.S. economy and infrastructure. DPRK’s leadership will tailor the use of its cyber capabilities to escalate tensions with the U.S. based on current political events. The SOF community should expand its unconventional warfare and special reconnaissance capabilities to include unique cyber skills that will allow SOF operators to anticipate, deter, and disrupt North Korean cyber-attacks.
Cryptocurrency
Sanctions have severely limited North Korea’s access to the international financial system; as a result, it actively and successfully seeks out other means to generate, collect, and manage revenue streams. The anonymity of cryptocurrency allows North Korea to bypass sanctions, pay for goods and services, and receive money. DPRK has also used stolen cryptocurrency to fund its nuclear weapons program.18 As of 2019, North Korea has taken $2 billion from banks19 and cryptocurrency exchanges20 through cyber-attacks....
