Friday, December 22, 2017

Poland's Plan to Dominate Europe II

That headline just cracks me up. As mentioned in one of the earlier posts, what Poland really wants is to just be left alone to sort out their own stuff  but like any humor there is a grain of truth to it.

And because of Poland's history the people have an almost genetically endowed talent for punching far above their weight-class (smaller population than California) in the diplomacy/strategy game.

First up in geopolitics ithe Intermarium or Three Seas Initiative, sort of Eastern Europe's version of the One Belt One Road plan:

From Geopolitical Futures, July, 7, 2017:

From the Intermarium to the Three Seas
Expansion makes sense for a grouping this ambitious.
The Intermarium is a concept – really, an eventuality – that I have spoken about for nearly a decade. I predicted it would rise after Russia inevitably re-emerged as a major regional power. Which makes sense, considering it would comprise the former Soviet satellites of Eastern Europe: the Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and possibly Bulgaria. Its purpose would be to contain any potential Russian move to the west. The United States would support it. The rest of Europe would agonize over it. What was once inevitable may soon be here.

Challenges, Intentional or Otherwise
The two foundations of the Intermarium (now frequently referred to as such in the region) are Poland and Romania, which have developed close military ties. The Baltics are already involved. The major holdout, unsurprisingly, has been Hungary, which has had to court Russia and the United States at the same time. But there are strong signals that Hungary is prepared to join. The government recently announced that it would join a Black Sea military exercise with Romania and Bulgaria – an annual exercise in which Hungary has never before participated. If this happens, then an eastern flank of the European Peninsula will have a cohesive group, backed by the global power, forming a line of demarcation between Russia and the rest of Europe.

Some are understandably worried about its formation. Few in Europe want to revert to Cold War politics; most Europeans believe they can accommodate Russian interests without creating a new containment line. U.S. sponsorship, moreover, directly challenges one of Europe’s most defining institutions, NATO. The Intermarium is not formally outside of NATO, but functionally it is, since NATO can’t really provide military assistance without U.S. help. In a military alliance, those with militaries tend to carry more weight than those without.

It also challenges the European Union, albeit unintentionally. Most the Intermarium’s members are outside the eurozone but constitute the most economically dynamic part of Europe. Eastern Europe’s economies are growing, and they boast extremely well educated, highly skilled and relatively cheap laborers. The region challenges the economic status quo, represented by the hegemony of the 1950s-style corporations that dominate European economics. As NATO showed, military alliances employ the logic of economic cooperation. The Intermarium sets the stage, in my view, of a more integrated economic drive. It will be in the EU, but it will behave differently from the EU – more entrepreneurial, more closely resembling the United States. This will create stress in the EU, which does not need any more stress....MUCH MORE
This is happening.
From the Dubrovnik Times, August 26, 2016:
Dubrovnik Forum 2016 – the three seas initiative 
''The area of the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Sea is the ''lifeline'' of Europe and around 50 billion Euros will be needed for its future development'', said the Croatian president Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic at the opening of the Dubrovnik Forum 2016 with her Polish colleague Andrzej Duda on Thursday, 25th of August.

''Twelve EU member countries– Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia surrounded by the three seas have had great opportunities to strengthen cooperation that would benefit not only these twelve EU country members but the whole European Union'', emphasized Grabar Kitarovic.

She also explained that due to historical reasons this area was way behind the European average. After the unification it was insisted on the re-building of relations between east and west, whilst the connection between north and south was ignored. 
''The Adriatic-Baltic-Black Sea (BABS) region accounts for 28 percent of the EU's territory and 22 percent of its population, but makes only 10 percent of the EU's GDP. The nominal GDP per capita is around 14,750 Euros on average which is only about 51 percent of the nominal GDP per capita average in the European Union'', commented the Croatian president....MORE
The EU poobahs in Brussels along with some huge money/power-nexus-types are fiercely pushing back, partly for reasons we'll look at in the next installment.


Germany May Be Trying to Destabalize Poland But No Worries
"Poland's Plan to Dominate Europe"