Some Interesting Questions: "The Shadow War Playing Out Behind The COVID-19 Crisis"

From OilPrice:

....What were some of the fundamental immediate outcomes and questions raised by the 2020 Fear Pandemic?

1. The global economy and the economies of most states have been dramatically weakened, and they will remain relatively weakened and transformed for some years; in many cases for decades. This means that economic deprivation will reach more pervasively down into the mass of society, reversing the trend of the past seven decades. It will exacerbate the polarization of societies, but seems likely to push the trend toward forms of nationalism more than it will reinforce the ideology of globalism;

2. The power of central governments has been dramatically increased, and the rights and freedoms of individuals constrained. By late March 2020, the situation in most Western societies had approached a quasi-martial law environment, with little social resistance;

3. Funding for R&D, national security, and consumer spending will decline, further exacerbated by the reduction in core size/wealth of most populations in advanced economies. The question is whether the limitation in wealth will exacerbate or constrain inflammatory populism and social action;

4. The role of global bodies has been weakened, as have alliances. This will lead to a rethinking of alliance structures and how to manage them. It will, even if only for reasons of fiscal constraints, lead to an increasing momentum toward the bilateralization of trade, even to the point, once again of thinking in terms of structured barter or counter-trade dealings;

5. The reach of formal military structures will be inhibited by funding, and will this open seams in the global power framework? Will it allow space for more independent, regional actions?;

6. While the Communist Party of China (CPC) probably has the strength to enforce control over the People's Republic of China (PRC), will the European Union (EU) have sufficient cohesion to enforce control over its member states? If the EU cannot "hold it together", would this create a space for Turkey to revive its neo-Ottomanist expansions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Balkans? Did the United Kingdom escape from the EU just in time to preserve its economic base? Did the EU’s poor handling of the crisis end forever the chance of bringing Serbia into the Union? And what will this new dynamic do for the encouragement of separate geopolitical alignments, such as the creation of the Three Seas Initiative as a potentially viable successor to part of the EU? Can Three Seas gain traction if Serbia is excluded, given its regional hub importance for the north-south infrastructural needs of the Alliance?;

7. What skills will be necessary in the post-2020 environment? Has the economy sobered enough to embrace the restoration of practical skills training instead of ideological education which has no market, while an impetus toward revived domestic manufacturing (rather than foreign-sourced manufacturing) will see significant demand for trained personnel?;....

....MUCH MORE

We've mentioned the Three Seas Initiative a few times:

Poland's Plan To Dominate Europe, III: Here Comes China

Okay, I'll stop the "Dominate Europe" schtick.

In addition to the North-South Three Seas commerce route (below) there is something else going on that has grabbed the attention of the eurocrats....

Poland's Plan to Dominate Europe II

That headline just cracks me up. As mentioned in one of the earlier posts, what Poland really wants is to just be left alone to sort out their own stuff  but like any humor there is a grain of truth to it.

And because of Poland's history the people have an almost genetically endowed talent for punching far above their weight-class (smaller population than California) in the diplomacy/strategy game.

First up in geopolitics ithe Intermarium or Three Seas Initiative, sort of Eastern Europe's version of the One Belt One Road plan:

Geopolitical Futures, 7/7/2017