Monday, May 15, 2023

"China holds rates, adds more liquidity as recovery struggles"

From Reuters, May 15:

China's central bank rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while keeping the interest rate unchanged on Monday, as expected, but markets expect monetary easing may be inevitable in the coming months to support the economic recovery.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was keeping the rate on 125 billion yuan ($18.08 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.75% from the previous operation.

Monday's operation was meant to fully meet financial institutions' needs and to "maintain reasonably ample banking system liquidity," the PBOC said in an online statement.

In a Reuters poll of 30 market watchers conducted last week, 26 participants, or 86.7%, predicted no change to the MLF rate, while four respondents expected a marginal rate cut.

The government lifted stringent pandemic measures in December that have started to rekindle credit demand in the world's second-largest economy, but there are growing concerns that momentum is slowing after the initial bounce....

....MUCH MORE

They're pushing on a string as central bank aficionados are wont to say. There is plenty of liquidity in the system but no one is taking it up.

As the central bank adjusts reserves to further ease, the yuan has been slowly weakening since February. (up is weaker, more yuan required to buy a dollar):

TradingView Chart

And as we saw last year, the Chinese authorities are not shy about allowing the yuan to trade above 7 to the dollar even though that makes dollar denominated debt more expensive to service. It also makes their exports cheaper as compared with Germany and other competing exporters. 
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