Wednesday, April 3, 2019

"What's Behind Bitcoin's Surge: Derivative Traders Believe They Know The Answer"

Climateer Investing is fortunate to have some of the smartest readers on the internet and we use that fact to drop Easter eggs for those paying attention (and who can get past the silly jokes).

That is why we posted "CBOE Abandons Bitcoin Futures"  with no comment beyond the price of the underlying ($3,977.74, down $11.11 last). I was tempted to add "You know what to do", still opaque but screaming "This is actionable!" I was counseled not to.
For another example, "The Great Cobalt Trade" see 2016's "Why the CIA Reads The Financial Times (and you should too) Tesla and Cobalt"

From ZeroHedge:
With cryptos soaring sharply just after midnight Eastern on April 2, and continuing their impressive ascent since then, with most tokens rising above their 200DMAs for the first time in a year, one question still puzzles traders: what catalyzed the surge.

While we previously presented various potential triggers for the buying spree, the puzzle remains, with some so-called experts even boldly suggesting the move which has added tens of billions in market cap to the crypto space, was due to a tweet by a so-called "prominent" contrarian on crypto who turned bullish (spoiler: that had nothing to do with it).

Addressing this issue, the crypto derivatives traders behind sk3w.com looked at the internals of the move, and concluded that the surge higher appears to have been driven by a very large short squeeze in a low liquidity backdrop. Specifically, they point out that between 5.30 and 6.30 a.m London time when the bulk of the upward move took place, nearly $500 MM of buyer order liquidations took place on Bitmex - the largest futures platform - in the space of one hour.

Putting the move in its proper context, here is the action in the last three months in terms of liquidation activity on Bitmex. Clearly something or someone got spooked, and was forced to cover (perhaps in connection with the CBOE's recent decision to end bitcoin futures trading).....MORE
Of course it was the announcement the futures were being canned, it was the only way, outside of bespoke swaps (and prop bets), to get short Bitcoin.
It was the mirror image of the December 2017 collapse upon the rollout of the derivatives.
$5,120.20  up $213.27