Tuesday, December 11, 2018

"USDA Ignores Trade War Rhetoric, Makes Minor Adjustments In WASDE"

Two more from AgWeb. The headliner:
12:21 PM
In their December World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA didn’t change much.  U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks were bumped up slightly, soybeans left unchanged. U.S. corn and soybean exports did not change, and global stocks to use rations barely moved. Analysts had to look between the lines to see any impact from the trade war with China.
USDA pegged U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.781 billion bu., compared to the average trade guess of 1.738 billion bu. That’s up just slightly from USDA’s November number of 1.736 billion bu. Corn and soybean exports remain at 2.45 billion bu. and 1.9 billion bu., respectively.

There was one surprise in the report: USDA's increase to 2018/19 world soybean ending stocks at 115.33 million metric tons (mmt). According to Paul Gregory CEO of Allendale, Inc., the average trade guess was 112.79 mmt.

The larger than expected increase is the result from a 3 mmt cut to exports in Argentina, says Karen Braun, global agriculture columnist for Reuters.  “Brazil's crop and exports came up, and the 17/18 crop was revised to 120.3 mmt. Old crop c/o up over 100 mmt. China, USA unchanged,” she tweeted.
While some analysts expected indications of trade tensions with China in this report, Angie Setzer of Citizens Grain LLC, says she was surprised to see USDA leave global numbers relatively flat.
“USDA did absolutely nothing when it comes to supply, demand or carryout,” she says. “They made slightly adjustments elsewhere in world numbers, but nothing earth shattering.”

Setzer did find it interesting that USDA came higher than CONAB for both corn and bean production out of Brazil....MORE
And the talking point that dilettantes glommed on to:
2018 11:20 AM 
WASDE: Soybeans Maintain Record Ending Stocks

It has been common knowledge since the end of the harvest that not only are storage facilities full up but beans are being stored on the ground in tarpaulins and getting wet and beginning to rot.
The market has had all that priced in since September:


Soybeans settled at 914.75 up 5.00