Sunday, December 2, 2018

Trade Talks: Grains and Beans

More chance of an extended move here, over the next few weeks, here than in equities, see after the jump.

From AgWeb:

Weekend Wrap Up
...Last Week’s Close: January soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 6 cents, extending gains for t he week to 12 ½ cents. Futures traded in a 39 ½ cent range through the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 6,124 futures through November 27th, expanding their net short position to 59,303 contracts.

Quick Take: News from the G-20 summit over the weekend indicate that the “trade war” between the US and China has come to a 90-day truce. This will almost certainly send the market higher on this evenings open, early calls are for beans to open anywhere from 20-40 cents higher. Significant resistance this week comes in at 932 ¾, this represents resistance on July 31st. Much of the move higher will likely be spurred by short covering over renewed optimism....MORE
Here's Friday's "China? Soybeans and Transport Stocks Are Up On a Meh Day":

... a year of beans via FinViz:
up 6.00 at 893.25



Although wheat is actually up double the 1% that soybeans are showing I wanted an excuse to highlight something from two weeks ago today:

Big Money: Consider The Humble Soybean
I'm tellin' ya, this Colby Smith is one to keep an eye on....

...So if someone who is doing the grunt work says en passant "beans may have bottomed" it may behoove the consumer of data/information/knowledge/wisdom to take note and be aware something might have changed and the game may be afoot:...
We have that series of higher lows starting with the September bottom but not (yet) higher highs.
If one can ascribe animal spirits to lines-on-chart I'd say soybeans are looking for a reason to trade higher.

Great. I am now anthropomorphizing inanimate objects....MORE
And today our link to Colby's confrère, Brendan Greeley:
Trade Deal: China Will Continue To Import Only What It Wants/Needs