Wednesday, December 12, 2018

The First Known Book About The Stock Market Will Be Auctioned At Sotheby's December 17

It's being offered as Lot 200 of the Fine Books & Manuscripts Online auction.
Online bidding closes December 17.
We've mentioned/posted on the book a few times, more after the jump.

From CNBC, December 4:

This is the first known book about the stock market — and it's worth $300,000
Sotheby's Fine Books and Manuscripts Online is auctioning Joseph de la Vega's "Confusion de Confusiones," the first known book written about a stock exchange, and it's estimated to go for between $200,000 to $300,000.

The book was written in 1688, according to Sotheby's. The main text, Sotheby's says, is penned as a dialogue between characters including a philosopher, merchant and shareholder, and it describes the Amsterdam stock exchange, which was the first stock exchange in the world.

The book also discusses four main principles of the market, many of which sound familiar: "never give anyone the advice to buy or sell shares" (even if it's well-intended advice, the book notes, it could turn out badly); "take every gain without showing remorse about missed profits" (as Kevin O'Leary says, "Never cry when the market goes down, because it's not crying for you"); "profits on the exchange are the treasures of goblins" (also akin to O'Leary's advice, "You'll see the markets go up and down.... Get over it. It's normal"); and "whoever wishes to win in this game must have patience and money" (the stock market is a long game, and you need money to play).
Author Vega, who was born in Spain around 1650 but lived in Amsterdam until his death in 1692, writes in the preface that he published the book for his own enjoyment, to champion the exchange as a fundamentally honest and useful enterprise and to warn of the deceitful practices that nevertheless flourished there, according to Sotheby's....MORE
The auction is getting international coverage:
Comprendre le marché boursier des Pays-Bas, en 1688 : le livre à 300 000 $
Den første boken om aksjemarkedet selges for 300.000 dollar

It seems that half the time we mentioned "Confusion de Confusiones," it was triggered by something written at FT Alphaville.
Here's an example from 2016's "Frontrun the Bank of England for Fun and Profit":
 Re: Mr. Keohane's headline [Confusion and the BoE’s corporate bond buying scheme], I couldn't help thinking of De la Vega's 1688 book Confusion of Confusions regarding the trading of Dutch East India Company stock.
The analysis in The Confusion of Confusions :  Between Speculation and Eschatology is a good introduction.

As another review puts it:
...He shows us all the tricks of the trade such as front-running large orders and spoofing the market with fake news to achieve a more favorable trading price.
 1688.
And more seriously in June of this year, a major piece: "Behavioral Finance at The World's First Stock Exchange".