2018 December Quick Look
Published: December 13, 2018
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
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El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the November average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables showed ENSO-neutral patterns. The lower-level wind anomalies averaged weakly westerly in the western Pacific, and the equatorial SOI was slightly negative–both suggestions of El Niño. But other indicators were neutral. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for an 90% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and over 60% during spring 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing through spring....MORE
