From Creighton University, December 3:
Mid-America November Index Declines for Third Straight Month: Two-thirds Supply Managers Report Negative Tariff Impacts
November survey highlights:* The Business Conditions Index fell for the third straight month, but remained above growth neutral for the 24th straight month.* Strong manufacturing job gains for the month with durable goods producers leading the way.* Approximately 65.2 percent of the supply managers indicated that rising tariffs had made it more difficult, or expensive, to purchase from abroad. Up from 40.8 percent in September.* Lower oil prices pushed the regional inflation gauge lower.OMAHA, Neb. (Dec. 3, 2018) – The November Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, sank for a third straight month, but remained above growth neutral, and continues to point to positive economic growth for the next three to six months.Overall index: The Business Conditions Index, which ranges between 0 and 100, fell to 54.1 from October’s 54.9. This is the 24th straight month the index has remained above growth neutral 50.0, but it dropped to the lowest reading since December 2016.“The regional economy continues to expand at a healthy pace. However, as in recent months, shortages of skilled workers remain an impediment to even stronger growth. Furthermore, supply managers are reporting mounting negative impacts from tariffs and trade skirmishes,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.Employment: The November employment index climbed to 57.5 from 52.2 in October.“Overall manufacturing employment growth in the region over the past 12 months has been very healthy at 2.5 percent, compared to a lower 2.3 percent for the U.S. I expect this gap to close in the months ahead as regional job growth slows faster than national manufacturing job growth Regional job growth for durable goods producers has been approximately four times that of nondurable goods manufacturers over recent months,” Goss reported.Wholesale Prices: The wholesale inflation gauge continues to indicate elevated inflationary pressures. However, lower oil prices softened the November index to 70.0 from October’s much stronger 79.9....MUCH MORE
