Monday, August 5, 2013

"Why dating apps and institutional fixed income trading are heading in the same direction"

From Celent's Wealth and Capital Markets blog:
Yes I am serious. There is a new mobile app called Tinder which people can use to find people close by using Facebook. Here is how it works according to Tinder:

1) Tinder shows you someone nearby it thinks you should know
2) You can anonymously like this person or skip to the next suggestion
3) If someone you like happens to like you back, then Tinder makes an introduction and lets you chat within the app

Fixed income traders may recognize this dynamic. While, for example, finding liquidity for (odd lot or small size orders) in corporate bonds is an exercise that has been largely automated and made electronic, round lots or institutional size orders are still locked in the old, voice-driven method.

Trading large size over the phone is like the old way of dating. The new way of dating recognizes that people want to find each other when it is convenient…and most importantly…without sharing too much information or else information that could be used against them. In other words, institutional buyside traders, like Tinder users, want to know that there is a potential match before they proceed further in broadcasting their interests. Sociologists are better positioned to explain why this is the case, but I imagine it has something to do with being rejected or socially shamed (is this the equivalent of market impact?)

If Tinder is the anonymous, electronic matching system for dating (a dark pool perhaps?) then the old, voice-driven request-for-quote (RFQ) market is the equivalent of the bar or even the wanted ads/message boards. The most important thing that Tinder does is it allows users to decide who to share information with and how much. This is the exact opposite of the RFQ, which is intended to provide limited transparency to multiple participants. With Tinder, only once there is a match do users then negotiate a deal or no deal (equities traders may recognize this looks a lot like the Liquidnet model). Tinder matches based first on proximity and then based on subjective, qualitative factors such as attractiveness. Do you like this person?...MORE
I knew Melissa Moody was on to something with her 2008 revamp of ratings.
Here she is on the change in MBIA from a staid, almost boring monoline insurer of municipal debt to being the fashion-forward princess of Mortgage Backed Securities and other CDO's:
...My ratings will be simple:
  • BFFAE (Best Friends Forever and Ever)
  • BFF
  • BFFLAF (Best Friends For Like Almost Forever)
  • BFFBAS (Best Friends Forever But Also a Slut)
  • BFFBIHH (Best Friends Forever But I Hate Her)
  • Whore
MBIA (NYSE: MBI)
Previous Rating: BFFAE
New Rating: BFFBAS
Ratings Rationale: MBIA used to have a good little thing going. Yeah, like not everyone thought she was totally hot, but everyone was like “Wow she has a good little thing going”, she was funny and nice, and who doesn’t like funny and nice? Not Melissa, I’ll tell you that. And she was a go-to girl anytime a friend was jammed up with boy problems and needed ice cream.
But then she changed, and we all saw it happening. She wanted to be totally hot and started hanging out with guys out of her league. Yeah she looked great, but the diet and the clothes and the whole lifestyle changed her. Rumors started about what she was doing behind the scenes at muni parties and at CDS keggers....MORE
You'll note the verbiage in the Bloomberg story linked at 'change in MBIA':
"Municipal bond insurers such as MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. had a good thing going."
recapitulated by Mel with:
MBIA used to have a good little thing going.