Thursday, August 29, 2013

Natural Gas Weekly Supply/Demand August 29, 2013

Mucking about in the natural gas markets is different from trading other commodities.
This is a normal day at the office:


It is probably best to check one's hubris/pride at the door because within 24 hours of saying something like:
So what to do? September's are expiring today and the next storage report is going to be more price supportive than we've seen in the last couple weeks so the best guess is up but jeez I wish we'd seen $3.61 so I wouldn't have to think.... 
you get the chart above.
From the EIA:
...At the Nymex, the price of the September 2013 contract increased slightly. The price of the September 2013 contract rose for the third consecutive report week, from $3.460 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.567 per MMBtu yesterday, its final day as the front-month contract. The October 2013 contract, which becomes the front month contract today, closed yesterday at $3.582 per MMBtu. The 12-month strip (the average of the 12 contracts between September 2013 and August 2014) increased from $3.771 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.821 yesterday.

Consumption increased during the report week, largely due to higher power demand. Total consumption in the Lower 48 states increased by 2.6% from the previous report week, according to Bentek, to 58.8 Bcf/d, but remained below the 59.6 Bcf/d average from two weeks ago. For the week, power sector consumption of natural gas (power burn) rose by 2.3 Bcf/d (8.5%) over last week to 29.1 Bcf/d, its highest level for the last five report weeks. Lower 48 power burn totaled 31.3 Bcf/d on Thursday, August 22, its highest level since July 19, 2013. It then fell to almost 26 Bcf/d over the weekend as temperatures cooled, and increased Tuesday and yesterday as temperatures recovered.

The highest weekly increase in power burn occurred in the Midwest (0.8 Bcf/d), followed by Texas and the Southeast (0.6 Bcf/d each). These increases, combined with increases in the Northeast and Midcontinent Producing region, outweighed a combined decrease of almost 0.6 Bcf/d, which primarily occurred in the Southwest.

This week’s 2.3 Bcf/d increase in total Lower 48 power burn, plus a 0.3 Bcf/d week-on-week increase in natural gas exports to Mexico at Texas border points, offset a combined 0.9 Bcf/d weekly decrease in industrial consumption, residential/commercial consumption, and exports to Mexico at Southwest border points.

Supply increased slightly during the report week. Total supply increased by 0.2% to 70.5 Bcf/d, its highest level since the last week of July. Dry gas production, imports from Canada and imports of LNG all rose week-on-week, by 0.1%, 1.5% and 8.0%, respectively. Imports from Canada increased in the West and Northeast, but decreased in the Midwest....MUCH MORE