Thursday, August 22, 2013

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update

Front futures $3.54 up 8 cents. Daily top tick: $3.557
From the Energy Information Administration:

In the News:
This week's warmth follows month-long cool spell, reduced power burn
Between Monday and Wednesday of this week (August 19 to August 21), average temperatures were warmer than during this period over the previous five years, with cooling degree days (CDDs)  4.7% above the 2008-12 average. This heat is expected to continue through the end of the month (August 22 to August 31), with CDDs projected to exceed the 2008-12 average by 8.7%. However, this warmer weather comes on the heels of much cooler temperatures starting in July and running through the first 18 days of the month. Between August 1 and August 18, CDDs were 24.9% below the 2008-12 average....

...Supply decreased slightly during the report week. Total supply decreased by 0.2%, as domestic production and imports fell. Dry gas production, Canadian imports, and LNG imports decreased by 0.1%, 1.9%, and 4.8%, respectively.

Working natural gas in storage increased to 3,063 Bcf as of Friday, August 16, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). A net storage injection of 57 Bcf for the week resulted in storage levels 7.4% below year-ago levels and 1.5% above the 5-year average.

The fact that the lower than expected injection was not caused by a decrease in U.S. production combined with the failure to break above the top of the sets the table for a short somewhere between here and the end of the heat wave. Via this morning's storage report:
From August 15's "Natural Gas: Looking for Another Leg Lower After the Heatwave":

...but the futures could trade up to $3.60 (from last week's 3.129 spike bottom) and still be in a downtrend: