Friday, August 30, 2013

Chartology: "This Pattern Often Leads to Lower Crude Oil Prices"

Front futures $107.66 down $1.14
One of our mental models has been a run from the hundo level to $115-120 for WTI and then a $30 drop.
That is not a forecast just a best guess arrangement of a bunch (technical term) of datapoints and insights from some very sharp people.*
Here's one more brick in the wall.
From Kimble Charting Solutions via Advisor Perspectives:



*From a week ago:
Looking For a Major Move in Oil
Crude is up $1.74 at $106.77.
Our medium term mental map is a fake-out shake-out, i.e. higher to suck in some buying and then a 10-15% drop, back under $100.
There is a lot of oil sloshing around and Asia isn't going to be needing it for a while.