Friday, August 24, 2012

"Why Gartman Is Getting Out of the Stock Market" (HAG)

We have very little patience with guys like Gartman.
Here's the "since inception" chart for the Horizons Gartman ETF:
Chart forHorizons Gartman ETF Comm (HAG.TO)

You'll note the ETF underperformed the S&P 500 from day 1 and only got worse from there.
In June 2009 we had:
Last week MarketBeat had a post "Gartman: ‘Warren Buffett Is an Idiot’" that relayed Mr. Gartman's radio comment. I had a comment [of course you did -ed] as did 57 other MarketBeat readers. The post is still at the top of their most read list. 10:47 am June 19, 2009
  • Mr. Gartman is a lightweight.
    As donzoab points out, free cash flow is key. It allows you to play in the big leagues.
    That and being able to cut opportunistic deals with a single phone call to Charlie or Sokol.
    When Gartman takes Goldman as deep as Warren did, 10% money and warrents! (in the money $1.1 Bil.) I’ll pay attention to his comments on BRK.
A few days later he backtracked:
Gartman: Warren Buffett Isn't An "Idiot" .. But He Allowed "Inexcusable" Losses (BRK.A)
and a few weeks later:
Dennis Gartman is an Idiot (BRK.B; DXY)
On June 18, 2009 Dennis Gartman said "Warren Buffett is an idiot"* and announced to the world that he was short Berkshire Hathaway. Neither of these were very smart moves. As the chart below shows, Berkshire is up 40-odd percent since Gartman's call.
In fact BRK.b has outperformed the S&P 2:1 in the intervening months....
With all that I do have to admit that he shows what the computer modelers call "Forecasting skill" in some commodities some of the time.
Here's today's story, from John Carney at CNBC:
Just as multiple Wall Street firms are ramping up their projections for the stock market, veteran hedge fund manager Dennis Gartman is getting out.

Gartman, author of the widely followed Gartman Letter, said Friday he has dumped his remaining long positions on stocks and is heading to the sidelines.

The move comes as firms such as Piper Jaffray and JPMorgan have recently upped the ante on their expectations for the Standard & Poor's 500 [.SPX  1407.96    5.88  (+0.42%)   ], which Gartman sees as vulnerable due to economic headwinds and diminished hopes for more central bank easing.

"Yes, we do indeed understand that this is a shift in sentiment; and yes we do understand that we had said that stock prices might 'melt up,' and yes we further understand that we may look foolish in the weeks ahead for standing down," he wrote this morning. "But call it trader’s intuition or call it what you will, but we wish to move quietly to the sidelines and watch henceforth."...MORE
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