Thursday, August 23, 2012

Hurricane Watch: As Tropical Storm Isaac Seeks Credentials, Tampa's (Democrat) Mayor Suggests Calling off the Republican National Convention

First up, Wunderblog:
...Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac has consistently confounded predictions that it would intensify, but all the potential factors inhibiting intensification seem to have diminished to the point where intensification has to occur. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth, giving the storm a high total heat content to work with.
These factors, combined with the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and more symmetric cloud pattern, support intensification, and all of the intensity models except the HWRF model predict intensification of Isaac to a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by Friday afternoon. The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC predicted a 34% chance that Isaac will become a hurricane by Friday afternoon, and a 6% chance it will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane then. 

By Friday afternoon, Isaac will likely be close enough to Southwest Haiti that the inner core will be disrupted, and the storm will likely be a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm on Saturday and Sunday as it moves over Cuba. Once Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits, it will be over very warm waters of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern favorable for intensification, with low wind shear due to an upper-level anticyclone over the storm. It will probably take at least 24 hours with the storm's center over water for it to become a hurricane....MORE
And from CBS Tampa:

Mayor: ‘Absolutely Prepared To Call Off’ GOP Convention If Isaac Threatens Tampa
Tampa’s mayor warns that the Republican National Convention could be canceled if Tropical Storm Isaac heads for the city.

Mayor Bob Buckhorn told CNN that he is more concerned about the safety of his people than holding the convention.

“Absolutely we’re prepared to call it off,” Buckhorn explained to CNN. “I mean, human safety and human life trumps politics. I think the RNC recognizes that.”...MORE