Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Thoughts on First Solar 1st Quarter Results (FSLR)

After trading down $15.00 in early pre-market trading, First Solar reversed and got up to $307.80.
The fact that the stock did not trade higher than the $308.24 all-time-high from April 22 is a sign of waning enthusiasm.
Today, at its high the stock was up $22.88 from yesterday's close.
On Feb. 13, when FSLR released Q4 numbers the stock closed up $52.90
On Nov 8, on release of Q3, the stock closed up $57.31.

There a couple things that I think about when talk turns to FSLR.
On the upside, a utility scale contract would be good for a pop.
On the downside, I've got my "Tokyo earthquake" scenario.

FSLR's use of Cadmium Telluride could come back to bite it in the butt, and not because of the much memed Te shortage.
Cd is one of six hazardous materials on the EU's "Restrictions on Hazardous Substances" list.

If you ever wake up and hear that there was a fire at a FSLR plant or in shipment or at a ground array, look for a four to ten billion dollar loss in market cap. And you'll get the news too late to avoid the rush.

Here's some info on the RoHS from Wikipedia.