Meanwhile in India: "Business Tycoon Says His Kids Called Him ‘Loser’ Because of Bill Gates"

A repost from those carefree days of early January 2020.

From Sputnik, December 25, 2019:

Back in his college days, top Indian industrialist Anand Mahindra, the chairman of multinational car manufacturing corporation – Mahindra Group – studied in Harvard University with many geniuses of the present day.

On Tuesday, Mahindra revealed to his 7.4 million followers on Twitter that Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates was also in the same Harvard class as he was in 1973.

As their father’s classmate, Gates’ success and achievements reduced Mahindra to a mere ‘loser’ in the eyes of his kids, the Indian industrialist has shared in good humour on the micro-blogging platform.

Bill kept his cool & asked “Why the grudge?” I replied: ‘My daughter asked which of my college classmates were now famous & when I told her your name, she said:’What a loser you are Dad!’ So thanks to you, I’ll always be a loser to my kids!’ We had a big laugh at that..(4/4)r pic.twitter.com/6ahkLwNqUm

— anand mahindra (@anandmahindra) December 24, 2019

Mahindra took a nostalgic trip down memory lane and shared some previously unheard of tales today after Twitter user Ramesh Babu shared a monochromatic yesteryear screenshot of the (then young) Indian tycoon sitting and chatting with Gates in what appeared to be a meeting.

The screenshot was captured from a Netflix original docu-series titled – “Inside Bill’s Brain – Decoding Bill Gates” – that was released back in September this year.
As part of his tweet, Babu casually tagged Mahindra asking him what the discussion with Gates back then was all about.....MORE

Mr. Mahindra seems to be pretty well-centered. One of our visits from 2017:

Some things I probably won't be doing today.
Via Anand Mahindra (yes, that Anand Mahindra!):

And on a Sunday afternoon, even as I recline on a couch, I can let my spirit soar along with these crazy people who accept no limits. Rise! pic.twitter.com/clChKtzNMl

— anand mahindra (@anandmahindra) March 26, 2017

And finally, I wonder if Mr. Mahindra is aware of this tidbit from  July 1, 2011 (it was on all the better blogs):

"Bill Gates’ Children Mock Him With ‘Billionaire’ Song"
From The Wealth Report:

Lots of people have poked fun at Bill Gates over the years, from David Letterman to Bill himself (here on his “last day” video.)
His children get to make fun of their dad every day. Often, in song.

According to this article in London’s Daily Mail, Gates’ children’s favorite way to taunt dad is to sing him “Billionaire,” by Travie McCoy and Bruno Mars.

“The Billionaire song is what my kids tease me with,” he said. “They sing it to me. It’s funny.”
For those unfamiliar with the song, here are some lyrics, some of which Gates happily sang to the interviewer.

(BRUNO)
“I wanna be a billionaire so frickin bad
Buy all of the things I never had
I wanna be on the cover of Forbes Magazine
Smiling next to Oprah and the Queen...

....MUCH MORE, including Bill's Retirement video which everyone should see at least once before they die.
If that copy of the retirement video is too rough we used another version in a November '19 post that might be cleaner.

"House of Cards: On Sean H. Vanatta’s 'Plastic Capitalism'"

From the Los Angeles Review of Books, June 21:

THE AMERICAN WAY of life has long meant living beyond one’s means. Take the experience of the average millennial, who attended college by accruing a median amount of $20,000–$25,000 in student loans. While on campus, she opened her first credit card and began using it to buy clothes, plane tickets, and groceries. When she graduated, she earned a salary of about $60,000, which she used to pay down her debt, while at the same time incurring new debts to pay for vacations, computers, phones, and cars. She’ll rent until she eventually secures a mortgage for a house, and if she experiences a health emergency, the state won’t cover much, so she will pay for care using credit. Twenty years after graduating college, she will still be in debt.

If this sounds like a peculiar system, it is. European governments, by contrast, spend a great deal to allow households to pay less for school, to start saving early, and to avoid small debts for everyday purchases. Europeans pay more in taxes, but this relieves them of the need to secure as much credit for housing, since more affordable options exist, as well as for medical care. Europeans grew accustomed to carrying multiple currencies across borders, and they maintained this preference for cash without ever adopting the United States’ culture of credit.

The difference is rooted in an economic philosophy. Just as credit is necessary to afford the American standard of living, so is a high-spending consumer the key to sustaining the country’s growth. “As the U.S. consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy,” is how the White House recently put it, attributing two-thirds of our economy to what consumers spend, as opposed to what they might have saved or invested. Credit is encouraged because—so the thinking goes—more spending stimulates the economy, which purportedly raises wages, helping consumers repay old debts and take on new ones. By normalizing household borrowing, the United States helped create the conditions—and the expectation—for low-cost, widely available loans, leading Americans to rack up $12 trillion in mortgages, $1.6 trillion in car loans, and $1.6 trillion in student loans.

Out of this economic philosophy emerged a seemingly natural by-product: the credit card. Between 1968 and 2000, use of this type of credit increased from $2 billion to a remarkable $626 billion, a period in which the US economy grew over 10 times. Credit cards fed this growth by enabling the consumer to finance everyday expenses beyond their earning power, which in turn fattened their wallets with so much plastic that they developed back injuries. Today, 191 million Americans have at least one credit card, and they swipe them a lot: last year, the country accumulated over $1 trillion in credit card debt.

Sean H. Vanatta, a historian at the University of Glasgow, shows, in his new book Plastic Capitalism: Banks, Credit Cards, and the End of Financial Control, that this system is a different type of credit altogether, with serious consequences. Vanatta argues that credit cards, which began as convenient plastic doodads with “gee-whiz novelty,” helped bankers shift the center of consumer finance from their neighborhood bank to an unsolicited credit offer arriving in the mail. In the process, bankers seized political power from the consumer, redesigning credit cards in a way that ultimately conflicted with the country’s idea of what credit should be—no longer freeing consumers to spend more but instead trapping them in debt they couldn’t afford....

....MUCH MORE

"Norway to award Arctic blocks for seabed mining in 2025"

Nauru and Norway seem to be the most enthusiastic nations pursuing seabed mining, not sure how the other N-nations, Namibia, Nepal (landlocked) etc. are proceeding 

From Canada's Globe and Mail, June 26:

Norway offered large areas of the Arctic region for its inaugural seabed mineral licensing round on Wednesday and aims to award exploration permits during the first half of 2025, the country’s energy ministry said.

Norway may become the first country in the world to start commercial deepsea mining, hoping to extract minerals needed for solar panels, wind turbines and electric car batteries needed to replace fossil fuel energy.

“The world needs minerals for the green transition, and the government wants to explore if it is possible to extract seabed minerals in a sustainable manner from the Norwegian continental shelf,” Energy Minister Terje Aasland said in a statement.

The government has previously said preliminary official resource estimates showed substantial accumulations of metals and minerals, ranging from copper to rare earth elements.

In January, the Norwegian parliament voted in favor of opening about 280,000 square kms (108,000 square miles) of ocean areas between Jan Mayen island and the Svalbard archipelago for seabed mineral exploration.

The 386 blocks proposed on Wednesday cover about 38 per cent of the total area opened by parliament, and the selection was based on industry input, the energy ministry said.

Seabed mining, however, has attracted criticism from environmentalists concerned at the prospect the pursuit of profit will disrupt one of the last parts of the natural environment that is relatively pristine and is little understood. They are challenging Norway’s plans in court.

WWF, which filed the lawsuit in May, condemned the proposal on Wednesady, saying it was a significant blow to the country’s reputation as responsible steward of the oceans....

....MUCH MORE

Previously on Norway and the seabed, 2018 to present:

"Norway to Map Deep Sea Mineral Deposits" 

Norway's Petroleum Directorate Completes Second Seabed MINERALS Expedition   

"Who Owns the Arctic?"

The Most Detailed Map of The Arctic Seabed Has Been Published 

"The rush to claim an undersea mountain range"

"Norway eyeing deep-sea metal mining future instead of oil"

"Russia considers extended claim to the Arctic seabed"

Iceland May Have Seabed Rights To Minerals and Hydrocarbons From Norway to Greenland and South To Scotland

"Scientists aim to build a detailed seafloor map by 2030 to reveal the secrets of the deep"

"The Seabed Solution: After 150 years, is the time finally right for deep-ocean mining?

More governments are turning against the rush to mine the deep sea, Monsieur Macron Says "Non!"

 More Land For Norway
No, not by invading Finland, Norway already did that. And the Finns were tallying the upside of annexation: NATO membership, Royal family, oil revenues etc.

"Norway finds 'substantial' mineral resources on its seabed"

Norway Finds A Methane-Spewing Mud Volcano

"Norway seeks to open vast ocean area to deep-sea mining"

"Norway to open its waters to deep-sea mining" 

Explainer: Why does Norway want to mine the seabed?" 

"Norway becomes first country to approve commercial deep-sea mining"

Yes, we've been keeping tabs on the blue-eyed Arabs of the north. 

And on Nauru:

"Why Nauru Is Pushing the World Toward Deep-Sea Mining"

"Deep-sea miner stock jumps after first seafloor collection since 1970s" (TMC)

FTX: Gabe Bankman-Fried, Sam's Bro, Tried to Buy the Island Nation of Nauru To Build A Fortified Bunker-State, and Spa

"Infrastructure Funds: The New Financiers of Offshore Energy Vessels"

From gCaptain, June 28:

NEW YORK — Infrastructure funds are increasingly financing expensive, purpose-built ships serving the offshore energy market, according to investment bankers speaking at Marine Money’s 36th annual conference.

This trend is due to bankers recently making a compelling case that these niche-market vessels share many characteristics of traditional infrastructure investments, said members of a panel entitled “Infrastructure Funds and Maritime Finance – The Love Affair Continues”. Arguably, the most compelling feature these vessels share is operating under long-term time charters, panelists said.

“It is a widening of the (infrastructure fund) lens,” said Loli Wu, managing director, co-head of North America Infrastructure Investment Banking, Bank of America in New York. The funds have become “a good source of capital for a certain type of asset,” he said.

Infrastructure funds underwrite the construction of expensive ships that store and process crude oil collected from offshore rigs, and others that re-gasify, or reheat, super-cooled Liquid Natural Gas, making that fuel readily available for commercial use. The charterer is often a marine terminal that receives the inbound cargo and subsequently transfers it downstream to an oil major or utility.

The defining characteristic of these purpose-built “midstream” vessels is that they are usually dedicated to a specific project and work under long-term charter contracts, speakers said. The goal is “to make it look like infrastructure,” said Denny Sreckovic, a partner at Global Infrastructure Partners, based in New York. The firm finances the construction of the ships that it owns....

....MUCH MORE

NASA and Boeing deny Starliner crew is ‘stranded’: “We’re not in any rush to come home”

From TechCrunch, June 28:

NASA and Boeing officials pushed back against recent reporting that the two astronauts brought to the ISS on Starliner are stranded on board. The companies said in a press conference Friday that they are using “the luxury of time” to learn as much about the capsule as possible before it returns to Earth. 

The two astronauts will be there for a few more weeks while the company and NASA perform more tests from the ground — meaning yet another extension to their stay, though officials declined to provide a new target date for their return.

“I want to make it real clear that we’re not in any rush to come home,” Steve Stich, NASA’s commercial crew program manager, said during the press conference. “The station is a nice, safe place to stop and take our time to work through the vehicle and make sure we’re ready to come home.” 

In the interim, engineers from Boeing and NASA will head to New Mexico’s White Sands Test Facility to conduct a series of remote tests on the spacecraft’s thrusters. There are 28 thrusters on Starliner, responsible for making minute changes to the spacecraft’s movements in orbit, and they’re critical for safe docking and undocking from the ISS. That docking process was halted on approach when five malfunctioned on orbit, but engineers were able to bring four of those thrusters back online, which allowed docking to proceed.

Starliner also experienced several small helium leaks since launch on June 5, but NASA and Boeing officials said that these leaks are not a concern for return. Starliner is not leaking any helium while its docked to the ISS because they are located in a part of the spacecraft that is closed off. The spacecraft also has ten times the amount of helium it needs to get through undocking and the deorbit burn, Stich said....

....MUCH MORE

Related, June 26:  SpaceX May Have To Rescue Astronauts Stranded By Boeing Starliner Failures

First Solar, Inc. Apparently A Victim Of President Biden's Debate Performance (FSLR)

One of the more interesting phenomena that can be observed in equity investing is the importance of getting on the right side of a move. This seems to be true whether you are looking at John Templeton investing in Japan at 2 - 3 times earnings and riding that market for the next quarter century or, in the instant case, FSLR in the last month. Some links after the jump.

A quick hit from the Wall Street Journal, June 28:

Clean-Energy Stocks Slide After Biden's Disastrous Debate

Shares of clean-energy companies are sliding in midday trading, a potential sign that investors are beginning to price in a victory for Donald Trump following last night's presidential debate.

Some traders expect Trump to undo some of the Biden administration's climate subsidies if he wins in November.

As we have stressed, from the early days of the blog, the investor must always be aware that climate investing is as much political as it is technological or financial. Our first inductee into the Climateer Hall of Fame exemplified the reality of the game:

Senator Simon Cameron D and R of Pennsylvania:

Our Hero

"The honest politician is one who when he is bought, will stay bought."

Recently on First Solar:

June 11: First Solar As Meme Stock (FSLR)

June 13: First Solar Received Some Nice Words From Oppenheimer And Baird; IBD Says "Extended" (FSLR)
And Investor's Business Daily says the stock is very extended after the recent run higher.
We pay attention to IBD, In late pre-market trade the stock is down $0.61 (-0.20%) at $300.10.

June 20: "ICYMI: First Solar Caught A Downgrade At Janney Montgomery Scott (FSLR)" 

June 26: Poster Child for Subsidies ($10 billion) First Solar, Inc.Being Looked At For Ties, Donations to Biden Administration

The stock last traded at $227.93 down another $21.99 (-8.80%) though off the day's low, $225.37.

California: "Newsom, lawmakers use cuts, reserves and ‘fiscal emergency’ declaration to solve budget deficit"

This is like putting a Band-Aid on a hemicorporectomy.

From the Los Angeles Times, June 22:

Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic lawmakers struck a deal Saturday to make $16 billion in cuts, declare a statewide fiscal emergency and pull money from the state’s rainy-day reserves to balance a $46.8-billion budget deficit.

The agreement for a $297.7-billion spending plan is the result of weeks of contentious negotiations with labor unions and business interests after weaker-than-anticipated revenue forced Newsom and lawmakers to scale back California’s progressive policy agenda. The shortfall inspired a tug-of-war over coveted state dollars that has caused rifts between the governor and some of his closest allies at the Capitol.

Among the more high-profile changes, the 2024-25 budget plan delays a minimum wage increase for healthcare workers until at least October, cuts $1.1 billion for affordable housing and slashes $750 million in funding for the state prison system.

California’s business community also took a hit, with the three-year suspension of nearly $15 billion in tax breaks a year earlier than Newsom initially proposed.

“This agreement sets the state on a path for long-term fiscal stability — addressing the current shortfall and strengthening budget resilience down the road,” Newsom said in statement. “We’re making sure to preserve programs that serve millions of Californians, including key funding for education, health care, expanded behavioral health services and combating homelessness.”

The deficit marks a dramatic reversal of California’s financial standing from a projected $100-billion surplus two years ago and creates a challenging political narrative for Newsom, who often boasts of the state being an essential economic engine for the nation....

....MUCH MORE

"Supreme Court delivers blow to power of federal agencies, overturning 40-year-old precedent"

This is one of the big decisions for this term.

From CNBC, June 28:

The important 1984 precedent gave federal bureaucrats flexibility to interpret the law when the language is unclear.

The Supreme Court on Friday overturned a 40-year-old precedent that has been a target of the right because it is seen as bolstering the power of "deep state" bureaucrats.

In a ruling involving a challenge to a fisheries regulation, the court consigned to history a 1984 ruling called Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council.

It is the latest in a series of rulings in which the conservative justices have taken aim at the power of federal agencies. The ruling was 6-3 with the conservative justices in the majority and liberal justices dissenting.

"Chevron is overruled," Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion. "Courts must exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority."

Liberal Justice Elena Kagan wrote in dissent that a "longstanding precedent at the crux of administrative governance thus falls victim to a bald assertion of judicial authority."

At the time it was decided, Chevron was a win for the deregulatory efforts of the Reagan administration, with the court ruling that judges should defer to federal agencies in interpreting the law when the language of a statute is ambiguous. That was initially seen as a benefit to Republican officials in the administration who wanted to make regulations less onerous on businesses.

In practice, the ruling meant that both Democratic and Republican presidents could take advantage of the flexibility it gave to agencies in implementing new regulations on a wide variety of issues....

....MUCH MORE

Here's the Court's Opinion: "LOPER BRIGHT ENTERPRISES ET AL. v. RAIMONDO,
SECRETARY OF COMMERCE, ET AL" 

Related:

May 2023
"How a group of herring fishermen may get the Supreme Court to reel in government power" 

April 2023
"E.P.A. Is Said to Propose Rules Meant to Drive Up Electric Car Sales Tenfold"

And on the broader issues:

July 3, 2022:
Background On The Supreme Court's EPA/CO2 Ruling: The Administrative State

"Thai Energy Billionaire Steps Up Data Center Push to Tap AI Boom"

I'm starting to think this may be more than a passing fad.

From Bloomberg, June 27:

• Tycoon Sarath, partners to spend $271 million to add capacity
• Tech firms are expanding AI, cloud services in Southeast Asia

Energy billionaire Sarath Ratanavadi, Thailand’s second-richest person, is accelerating his push into data centers to tap a booming market fueled by rising demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

His energy company, Gulf Energy Development Pcl, and its partners plan to spend an additional 10 billion baht ($271 million) to double their outlay on a data center facility in suburban Bangkok. The expansion will increase the center’s energy consumption to 50 megawatts from a previously announced 25 megawatts, with completion expected in March, Gulf Energy Chief Financial Officer Yupapin Wangviwat told reporters Thursday.

Sarath is expanding his empire into virtual banking, cryptocurrency trading and other technology businesses as electricity generation in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy has excess capacity. Demand for data centers is rising in the region, with global tech companies spending billions of dollars to spur cloud computing and AI services.

“We set the expansion of the second phase now because we expect a surge in demand for our data center services,” Sarath said at the press conference in Bangkok. “A jump in AI adoption and cloud computing will substantially increase demand for our data center bandwidth.”...

....MORE

Elsewhere on the Peninsula: "Malaysia is emerging as a data center powerhouse amid booming demand from AI" 

And across the region: "Everyone Wants Asia-Pacific Data Centers: BlackRock's GIP Joins Blackstone, Others, Bidding For Australia's AirTrunk"

NYT: "As the planet warms, atoll nations like the Maldives seemed doomed to shrink. Scientists have begun to tell a surprising new story"

From the New York Times, June 27:

A Surprising Climate Find
As the planet warms, atoll nations like the Maldives seemed doomed to shrink. Scientists have begun to tell a surprising new story.  

We humans have settled in all sorts of precarious environments: parched deserts, barren tundra, high mountains. None are precarious in quite the same way as atolls, the tiny, low-lying islands that dot the tropics. As the planet warms and the oceans rise, atoll nations like the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu have seemed doomed to vanish, like the mythical Atlantis, into watery oblivion.

Of late, though, scientists have begun telling a surprising new story about these islands. By comparing mid-20th century aerial photos with recent satellite images, they’ve been able to see how the islands have evolved over time. What they found is startling: Even though sea levels have risen, many islands haven’t shrunk. Most, in fact, have been stable. Some have even grown.

One study that rounded up scientists’ data on 709 islands across the Pacific and Indian Oceans showed that nearly 89 percent either had increased in area or hadn’t changed much in recent decades. Only 11 percent had contracted.

To understand why, I spent time this past spring with a team of researchers in the Maldives as they collected data on two key pieces of the puzzle: ocean currents and sand.

Currents and waves can erode sandy shorelines, of course. But they can also bring fresh sand ashore from the surrounding coral reefs, where the remains of corals, algae, crustaceans and other organisms are constantly being crushed into new sediment. (Another source of sediment? Colorful parrotfish, which munch on coral and churn out white sand from their digestive tracts.)

By examining how these interrelated and complex processes affected one particular island — Dhigulaabadhoo, an uninhabited curlicue of land a few miles north of the Equator — the scientists hope to better predict how other islands will change.

The next century
Though the research suggests that atolls aren’t about to wash away entirely, it hardly means they have nothing to worry about. Global warming is putting coral reefs under severe strain. If, say, the ice sheets melted faster than expected, then sea-level rise could accelerate sharply.

Even so, scientists say, the revelation that atoll islands can adjust naturally to rising seas means the people who live on them have an opportunity to figure out how to cope with their changing environment. It means they have other options besides the most drastic one: abandoning their homelands altogether.

“I’m confident that there’ll be islands in the Maldives” 50 or 100 years from now, one of the researchers on the team, Paul Kench, told me while we were on Dhigulaabadhoo. “They’re not going to look like these islands; they’re going to be different. But there will be land here. To me, that’s the challenge: How do you coexist with the change that’s coming?”

The Maldives needs to cultivate and recruit more scientific experts who can help guide the nation’s efforts to adapt, said Ali Shareef, the government’s special envoy for climate change. Without them, it’s hard to build infrastructure while minimizing harm to reefs, or to design towns that are resilient to flooding.

Money is an issue, too. “If we have access to the technology and finance, I think we can save the Maldives. It is not all doomsday,” Shauna Aminath, a former environment minister, told me. “The problem is, we don’t have access to finance and technology.”....

....MORE

Not surprising, this has been known for years. The developers and island governments building the resorts and hotels aren't thinking "underwater attractions."

As far back as 2008 we were posting stuff like "Maldives wants emissions cuts but not from tourism".

PCE DEflation: "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024"

Press release, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 28:

Personal income income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).

The PCE price index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.5 percent in May and real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.1 percent (tables 3 and 4).....

Price indexes:
PCE	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.0
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.7	2.6
PCE, excluding food and energy	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.6

....Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May decreased less than 0.1 percent (table 5). Prices for goods decreased 0.4 percent and prices for services increased 0.2 percent. Food prices increased 0.1 percent and energy prices decreased 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 2.6 percent (table 7). Prices for goods decreased 0.1 percent and prices for services increased 3.9 percent. Food prices increased 1.2 percent and energy prices increased 4.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago....

....MUCH MORE

Complete release (tables, narrative) 10 page PDF 

For what it's worth the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast had PCE ticking up 0.07% for the month, core PCE up 0.10% with both measures expected to resume their ascent when the June numbers are released next month.

Capital Markets: "Will the PCE Deflator Really Contain New Information?"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed as North American participants prepare to return for the last session of the first half. Despite firmer than expected Tokyo CPI and stronger than expected industrial output, the market lifted the greenback around JPY161.25 before profit-taking pressures bought it back toward session lows near JPY160.65 in Europe. President Biden is thought to have lost last night's debate with Trump, but it does not appear to be much of a market factor. The immediate focus is on today's PCE deflator, which we suggest below may not have lasting impact as the signal has already been given from the CPI and PPI, and there will be another batch of inflation readings before the Fed meets again. The outcome of Sunday's French election remains a source of investor anxiety and the French 10-year premium over Germany has widened further today to the most since 2012. Most emerging market currencies enjoy a firmer tone against the dollar today, including the Chinese yuan. The PBOC fixed the dollar lower today for the first time in eight sessions.

Equities are closing the month on a firm note. The large bourses, but India rose in the Asia Pacific region. Japan's Topix reached a new 34-year high. Europe's Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a three-day decline and is up about 0.25%. US index futures are trading higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-4 bp higher in Europe and the 10-year US Treasury yield is up a couple of basis points to 4.30%. The yield is up about seven basis points this week. Gold is consolidating yesterday's recover and is slightly firmer near $2330, where is up fractionally on the week. August WTI is breaking out of its $80-$82 consolidation and reached almost $82.75 today, a new two month high....

...America
It may sound blasphemous, but don't expect much more than a knee-jerk reaction of the release of the inflation measure the Fed targets, the PCE deflator. First, the signal has already been generated from the CPI and PPI releases. With those inputs, the PCE deflator rarely surprises. Second...

...MUCH MORE

Izabella Kaminska: "The dirty little secret no politician will admit: There is no way to ‘go for growth’" (plus Macron as Commander-in-Chief)

Ms Kaminska writing rather than editing.

At PoliticoPro (.eu) Izzy Ungated, June 27:

Everything now is just a euphemism for financial repression and austerity. That doesn’t stop politicians looking for magical alternatives. 

Investment professionals and politicians who spurned Liz Truss's “go for growth” strategy for the British economy are slowly waking up to an uncomfortable truth.

The former U.K. Prime Minister's plan, which relied on unfunded tax cuts that were perceived to be inflationary, may have been the only growth plan for Europe's economies to escape over-indebtedness and low productivity without having to turn to austerity or greater state control of the economy. Not that any of them are prepared to admit it.

Britain's Institute of Fiscal Studies on Monday described parties' reluctance to admit as much on Monday as “a conspiracy of silence” arguing Labour's pledge to rule out tax hikes was a “mistake.” “We wish Labour had not made those tax locks and it will be difficult [politically] to break,” IFS director Paul Johnson said about the party currently leading the polls.

But it's not just British politicians who are refusing to face up to reality. In France, where an impending snap parliamentary election threatens to empower extremists on both sides of the political spectrum — to the cost of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance party — there is a similar reluctance to admit there are only bad options on the table.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire highlighted last week, after French bonds began to wobble, that anything short of centrism risks placing France under the supervision of Brussels and the International Monetary Fund....

....MUCH MORE

Also open access at PoliticoPro, June 27:

Le Pen raises the stakes by challenging Macron’s role as commander-in-chief

"Swedish police investigate three unexplained deaths at an electric vehicle battery plant"

What's going on here? Northvolt's manufacturing set-up is as advanced as anyone's, it doesn't make sense that there would only be the one cluster if the battery-making process is involved.

From the Associated Press, June 27:

Police in northern Sweden said Thursday they were looking into the unexplained deaths of three men who had died within a short period after working at an electric vehicle battery plant in the Arctic. They want to find out whether the deaths are linked, whether a crime has been committed, or if they are a string of accidental workplace fatalities.

The deaths have puzzled Swedish media which have reported about the three people who died after working at Northvolt’s plant in Skelleftea, some 620 kilometers (385 miles) north of Stockholm. Two of them died in January and February, while a third one passed away last year. Two were working at the plant and the third one was a cleaning person.

Local newspaper, Norran, said that a 33-year-old cleaner was found dead in his bed in January, the day after his evening shift. A month later, a 19-year-old employee was also found dead in his bed hours after late-night work. Last year, a man in his 60s was found dead on his balcony after having worked at the plant, the newspaper said....

....MUCH MORE

"A $100 Billion Bet on China’s Economy Sours as Warehouses Empty"

From Bloomberg, June 25:

• Vacancies are climbing at many logistics and industrial parks
• E-commerce slowdown, company offshoring slams landlords

In many parts of China, the warehouses and industrial parks that used to be a magnet for international investors are grappling with a surprising slowdown in business activity.

Logistics hubs that were built in anticipation of a long-lasting boom in e-commerce, manufacturing and food storage are losing tenants, forcing building owners to slash rents and shorten lease terms. Shares of real estate investment trusts that own China commercial properties have plummeted, and some of their managers expect their rental income to fall further.

Average vacancy rates at logistics properties in east and north China are approaching 20%, the highest in years, according to real estate consultancies. More warehouses are being built, which is making the problem worse. “We are looking at a supply glut in logistics and industrial properties in China,” said Xavier Lee, an equity analyst at Morningstar who covers the real—estate sector.

The deterioration has been disappointing for property owners that were counting on an economic rebound in China this year. Global institutions have collectively invested more than $100 billion in warehouses, industrial buildings, office towers and other Chinese commercial real estate over the past decade, according to data from MSCI Real Capital Analytics. The foreign investors include Blackstone Inc., Prudential Financial Inc.’s PGIM, Singapore’s GIC Pte. and CapitaLand Group, and many others.  

A few institutions are contemplating divestments of their worst-performing assets before rents fall further. Others intend to wait out the downturn and expect to make money in the long run....

....MUCH MORE

We had a serious interest in warehouses and cold storage, 2019 -2022. Here's a December 2020 post, we were catching a covid tailwind:

Real Estate: "Logistics market is hot, but is a bubble forming?"
It's always nice to see a sector you've been babbling about for a couple years finally referred to as a bubble.

And another:

December 22, 2020
"Why Blackstone and other private equity giants are gobbling up warehouses"

A few more (there may be one hundred posts in all): 

June 3, 2019
Logistics: Big Money For Warehouses, Looking at Cold Storage.

...This next bit brings back some memories. My second stock to double was a cold storage company, actually a dairy with a cold storage operation that was valued at about one-quarter of comparables. I started chipping away at the float and before I got anywhere near enough stock, the management, who knew full well the value of the operation, did an LBO and took it private at 2x market and ended up generating cash-on-cash returns (for themselves) of around 40% per annum for a decade or so.
Bastards. 

June 6, 2019
"It's About To Become A Hot Market For Cold Storage Facilities"—CBRE
March 30, 2020
"Coronavirus: Panic buying sparks surge in flexible storage demand"
Cold is very important.

Real Estate: "Logistics warehouse tenants should brace for 10% rate hikes — CBRE"
If your mandate said you had to have exposure to real estate, this and cousin cold storage were the place to be over the last seven or eight quarters.

By 2022 though it was time for the speculator to move on:
Logistics/Warehouses: "Amazon Seeks To Offload Up To 10 Million Square Feet Of Warehouse Space" (AMZN)

Aston Martin Has A "Q" Division: The Valiant V12 is Fernando Alonso’s side project

Who knew?

From CityAM, June 26:

Aston Martin has released the first images of its new limited-edition supercar, created by the company’s in-house Q division. The Aston Martin Valiant is based on a personal commission for the marque’s F1 driver, Fernando Alonso. The Spanish star requested a more hardcore version of the 2023 Aston Martin Valour, with less weight and the ability to be driven hard on-track.

Alonso will demonstrate the 745hp, V12-engined Valiant at this summer’s Goodwood Festival of Speed.

Pinnacle of performance

A press release describes the Aston Martin Valiant as the ‘pinnacle of ferocious front-engined Aston Martin limited edition specials’. Its twin-turbocharged 5.2-litre V12 is mated to a six-speed manual gearbox.

Multimatic Adaptive Spool Valve (ASV) dampers, as seen on the Ford Mustang GTD, are fitted to the Valiant. With unlimited tuning potential, owners will be able to perfect their setup for specific race circuits.... 

....MUCH MORE

Here's:

Q by Aston Martin
BESPOKE. INTENSIFIED

Tips And Tricks For Investing In 'End of the World Funds'

A repost from 2018.

As unauthorized representatives for Long or Short Capital's End of the World Puts this is an area of profound interest from which we have gleaned some insight:

1) Should the world end, collecting on your bet can be a challenge. Know your counterparty!
     And possibly more important, demand collateral.
2) The swings in end of the world product prices can be dramatic.
3) Prognosticators have predicted 100,000 of the last 0 termination events.

As amateur scribblers we are adherents of the WaPo's Joel Aschenbach's dictum:

...When in doubt, go with the most hysterical headline.

(Rule one of blogging is that the End Of The World will be good for page views.)

Joel Achenbach, Washington Post
-World War Five

Although not a journalist I am affected by what they do, usually on a minute-to-minute basis, which gives one a real incentive to have what is admittedly a fuzzy (vague, incomplete etc) overview of what they-and other storytellers-are thinking about.
So I read stuff.

Last seen in 2017's "The end of the world is a growth industry."

With that, we'll turn it over to the professionals. Here's Dan McCrum writing at FT Alphaville:

Algebris has launched an 'end of the world fund'

Algebris Investments, the €12bn asset manager, has launched an “end of the world fund” pitched as a solution to the nagging fears of institutional investors that another financial-market meltdown or crisis might be overdue.

The fund will be run by Alberto Gallo, a popular investment bank strategist turned hedge fund manager, and will attempt to buy the equivalent of doomsday insurance through investments in credit, fixed income and equities which profit when those markets plummet or gyrate with unusual violence.

It was launched on June 1 with the backing of two large institutional investors and seed money from Algebris. The group expects the fund, officially called a “Tail Risk Fund”, to attract commitments of €100m to €500m in the coming months. The launch is a sign of investor jitters after years of global economic expansion, which might revive an investment strategy that became popular following the 2008 financial crisis.

The term “tail risk” comes from statistics, and refers to rare and extreme events that fall outside what is normally expected. Gallo, whose two-year old Macro Credit fund has €1bn of assets under management, told FT Alphaville the idea for the new fund came to him last year during a bout of late-night strategising with colleagues in Spain.

Widespread optimism made them think. “Last year, every trade worked out well, liquidity was plentiful, everyone was optimistic, so we started thinking about what could go wrong”, he said.

So the fund was conceived as a way to prepare for a possible shock to the financial system, after a decade of easy money and quantitative easing provided by central banks. It came to life after Algebris was one of several groups approached by large investors looking for investment strategies designed to limit losses to portfolios.

“They came to us and said, we want to trade against the crash and a big repricing, let's do the big short” said Gallo.

The challenge of such funds is that insurance is expensive, particularly when demand for it is high....MUCH MORE 

We are not fans of the typical black swan fund, even as a hedge. Like triple-leveraged inverse ETF's the concept sounds good but having the market's historical upward bias grinding against you can get wearying. Some day this will change but in the meantime here are some thoughts on Nassim Taleb:

More on Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb as a Money Manager
The day the Wall Street Journal broke the news of "Taleb Makes Hyperinflation Bet and Why You Might Want to Be Skeptical" there was a minor kerfuffle about a claim “...made $20 billion for our clients, half a billion for the Black Swan fund", reported in the British GQ. I didn't understand how that could be and instead chose to focus on his Empirica Kurtosis fund's performance.

We've been tracking Mr. Taleb for quite a while and the general summation is an ad I was going to write for him:

"Here at The PseudoProfound Group, we believe..."

Climateer Line of the Day: The Humble Mr. Taleb Edition

I was reminded of something Nassim Taleb said a few years ago:

CNNMoney: Did your personal portfolio benefit or suffer from the subprime crisis?

Taleb: I prefer not to answer that, as I am trying to avoid talking about my nonintellectual activities. 

And  now I can't stop laughing. ...

In 2010 it was "Oh Berkshire Hathaway Fans: "'Black Swan' Author Nassim Taleb: Warren Buffett May Just Be Lucky" (BRK.B; BRK.A)"

How to keep your name in the headlines by making a sophomore statistical point (sample size, error bars, confidence levels)....

That Hyperinflation post has some amusing analysis of Taleb's prior fund, Empirica Kurtosis LLC. Here' one bit:

...So after the fund starting grinding out losses, Nassim started calling his fund a 'hedge', not a fund, later, a 'laboratory'. Now he says about the fund:"Our aim was not to make money,'' Taleb says.... 

...But he makes sure any article that mentions his fund notes he made 60% in 2000. The only record of his total fund was a WSJ article on him in 2007, which notes he lost money in 2001 and 2002, made single digits in 2003 and 2004. That averages out to around 12%, and as the risk free rate was about 4% over that period, and the volatility was probably around 17% on a monthly basis, thats a Sharpe of 0.47. Not so good. And that's with his unaudited returns, so it's probably biased high (people have a tendency to round unaudited results upward significantly)...

See also "More on Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb as a Money Manager"

2013's "Brian Eno Answers Nassim Taleb" begins with:

Mr. Eno is an autodidactic polymath.
Mr. Taleb is a comedian:
Climateer Line of the Day: The Modesty of Nassim Taleb Edition

Big 'ol HT up front to Abnormal Returns.

From Artangel:

From: Brian Eno, London
To: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York
30 April 2013

Dear Nassim,

And ends with a very nice cover of Mr. Eno's "Baby's on Fire".

August 2015
Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb-Advised Fund Made a Billion From the Volatility On Monday

We are not impressed.
If it takes you six years of buying out-of-the-money puts for your 20% day to arrive, your annualized gain suffers....

Possibly also of interest:
March 2008!
Black Swans and Greenspan
July 2011
Taleb's World: "Knowledge is (not) Good"
August 2014
Translating Taleb
January 2014
Nassim 'Black Swan' Taleb Is a....[fill in blank]
November 2014
Why is Nassim Taleb So Venomous on Twitter?
Oct, 2008
Taleb Calls For LTCM Pair To Lose Nobel Prize
Feb. 2013
Holy Cow, Is This a Paragraph or What? (Poor Nassim Taleb Never Stood A Chance)
By Joseph Cotterill (his ranting gets raves):...

And many more, use the 'search blog' box, keyword Taleb. 

Capital Markets: "The Greenback Consolidates while Sustaining Break against the Yen"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The dollar is sporting a softer profile today against all the G10 currencies but the Swedish krona. The Riksbank sounded more dovish than previously, signaling the possibility of a cut in each of the last three meetings of the year. The dollar has sustained its push above JPY160 against the Japanese yen. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer, with the notable exception of Türkiye and South Africa. Türkiye is expected to keep its one-week repo rate steady today at 50%, while the Czech central bank is seen delivering a quarter-point cut. (to 5.0%). The central bank of Mexico meets later today and will hold the interest rate target at 11.00%.

Equities are under pressure today. All the large bourses fell in the Asia Pacific region but India. The losses were led by a 2% slide in the Hang Seng and a nearly 2.4% drop in the index of mainland shares that trade there. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for a third consecutive session, which if sustained, matches the longest losing streak of the year. US index futures are trading lower. Bond markets are also under pressure. The 10-year JGB has risen for six straight sessions, and a little above 1.07% it is approaching the year's high set at the end of May near 1.10%. European benchmark yields are more 2-3 bp higher. The US 10-year Treasury yield is firm a little above 4.33%, after increasing by eight basis points yesterday, the most in nearly three weeks. Gold found support below $2300 and is trading firmer after falling in three of past four sessions. August WTI has been chopping between $80 and $82 for the past five sessions and looks poised to push higher. It has not been above $82 since late April.

Asia Pacific

The two key developments are the dollar holding above JPY160 and the continued decline in China's 10-year yield to fresh 20-year low near 2.20%. Chinese officials appear increasingly concerned about the decline in rates, and reports suggest the PBOC has threatened to sell some of its bond holdings....

....MUCH MORE

Elon Musk's Tyrannical "X" Regime Is Over

Thus sayeth the U.S. Supreme Court (or at least one of the justices, sort of):

The Supreme Court has ruled that we can still call it Twitter. https://t.co/fUT4WDE9Mw

— Jarvis (@jarvis_best) June 26, 2024

And Meta Is Facebook:

Proclaim Liberty throughout the land! 

Here's the Opinion. Justice Barrett's comment above is on page two (page seven in the PDF)

MURTHY, SURGEON GENERAL, ET AL. v. MISSOURI  ET AL.
CERTIORARI TO THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR
THE FIFTH CIRCUIT
No. 23–411. Argued March 18, 2024—Decided June 26, 2024

Henceforth and evermore we shall refer to these platforms as Twitter and Facebook, Huzzah!

(or as Elon and the Zuck)

Poster Child for Subsidies ($10 billion) First Solar, Inc.Being Looked At For Ties, Donations to Biden Administration

Of course FSLR has ties to the Biden Administration, you don't think they snuggle up to Hitler and the gang? 

(actually the Nazis were very eco-conscious, at least up to that WWII thing.)

As noted in the June 13 post on the stock being very extended at $301:

....Our interest in FSLR was rekindled when the extent of their Bidenbucks windfall started to become apparent:

....Here's your fearless forecaster in August:

 "First Solar, The Poster Child For Solar Subsidies Has Had An Awful Month (FSLR)": 

As the Wall Street Journal noted on July 31:

The U.S. Clean-Energy Company That Hit the Subsidies Jackpot

Of all the beneficiaries of the U.S.’s green-energy push, few have hit the jackpot like First Solar. The Arizona-based solar-panel manufacturer expects to receive as much as $710 million this year—nearly 90% of forecast operating profit—from subsidies the U.S. government rolled out a year ago to encourage domestic renewables production. One analyst estimates the incentives could be worth more than $10 billion for the company over the next decade. . .

That followed June 11's "First Solar As Meme Stock (FSLR)". 

Related June 20: "ICYMI: First Solar Caught A Downgrade At Janney Montgomery Scott (FSLR)"

And today's story from the Associated Press:

A signature Biden law aimed to boost renewable energy. It also helped a solar company reap billions

As he campaigned for the presidency, Joe Biden promised to spend billions of dollars to “save the world” from climate change. One of the largest players in the solar industry was ready.

Executives, officials and major investors in First Solar, the largest domestic maker of solar panels, donated at least $2 million to Democrats in 2020, including $1.5 million to Biden’s successful bid for the White House. After he won, the company spent $2.8 million more lobbying his administration and Congress, records show — an effort that included high-level meetings with top administration officials.

The strategy was a dramatic departure from the Arizona-based company’s posture under then-President Donald Trump, whom corporate officials publicly called out as hostile toward renewable energy. It has also paid massive dividends as First Solar became perhaps the biggest beneficiary of an estimated $1 trillion in environmental spending enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act, a major piece of legislation Biden signed into law in 2022 after it cleared Congress solely with Democratic votes.

Since then, First Solar’s stock price has doubled and its profits have soared thanks to new federal subsidies that could be worth as much as $10 billion over a decade. The success has also delivered a massive windfall to a small group of Democratic donors who invested heavily in the company.

Big returns
Ahead of what is shaping up to be a tight race for the White House this year, Biden and his fellow Democrats point to the sprawling legislation as an example of investing in alternative energy in ways that will help the environment and lift the economy. But First Solar offers an example of how the same piece of legislation, shaped by a team of lobbyists and potentially influenced by a flood of campaign cash, can yield mammoth returns for the well-connected.

First Solar’s top lobbyist, Samantha Sloan, offered a revealing glimpse of the company’s reach after a bill signing celebration.

“Those of us who’ve worked on this know that none of this would have been possible without the dedication and collaboration of a group of Congressional staffers who worked long hours” to ensure that the law would “deliver as intended,” she posted on LinkedIn alongside a photo of herself beaming on the White House South Lawn.

Angelo Fernández Hernández, a White House spokesperson, did not directly address First Solar’s efforts to curry favor with the Biden administration.

“President Biden has led and delivered on the most ambitious climate agenda in history, restoring America’s climate leadership at home and abroad,” Fernández Hernández said in a statement. “The White House regularly engages with industry leaders across all sectors, including clean energy manufacturers and gas and oil producers.”

In a statement, First Solar CEO Mark Widmar said the new subsidies have helped build the company’s domestic footprint. He also took a swipe at some of First Solar’s rivals with ties to China, which dominates the industry.....

....MUCH MORE

The stock is down another $11.43 (-4.45%) at $245.31 with that $301 figure fading in the rear view mirror.

And peaking of Scandal, since in the current political environment nothing will come of this, our long suffering readers should have something for their time, some sort of gift:

It was the '80's.