From The Moscow Times (designated as an "undesirable" organization by Russia's Prosecutor General's Office), September 4:
Russia’s economy slipped into “technical stagnation” in the second quarter of this year, according to Sberbank CEO German Gref, who on Thursday repeated his past warnings that the Russian Central Bank’s tight monetary policy risked tipping the country into recession.
Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Gref also said that July and August data suggested growth was now approaching zero.
“A main driver, of course, is the key interest rate. According to our internal estimates [at Sberbank], the rate will be around 14% by year-end. Is that enough for the economy to start recovering? In our view, it is not,” the banker added. “Given the current level of inflation, recovery can only be expected when the rate is at 12% or lower.”
Russia’s Central Bank had raised its key rate to a two-decade high of 21% in September 2024 to combat surging inflation, largely driven by spending on the military. Although policymakers have since lowered the rate to 18%, signaling a gradual shift away from their fight against inflation, they have refrained from more drastic cuts, as state spending remains high.
Gref’s sense of unease was echoed by senior government officials at the Vladivostok forum, where President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak on Thursday.
Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said the economy was “cooling down faster than expected” and that new government forecasts would be submitted “shortly.” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Putin last week that growth projections for next year are down to 1.5%, from 2.5%, with some estimates pointing closer to 1.2%....
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