Time for a blow-off top in markets.
(prices for portfolio management advanced 2.0 percent)
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 10:
The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in July and 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August.
The August decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August, the fourth consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in August, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.8 percent, the largest 12-month advance since climbing 3.5 percent in March 2025.
Final Demand
Final demand services: The index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent in August, the largest decline since moving down 0.3 percent in April. The August decrease can be traced to a 1.7-percent drop in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, the indexes for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services increased, 0.3 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Three quarters of the August decrease in prices for final demand services can be attributed to a 3.9-percent decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. The indexes for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling, chemicals and allied products wholesaling, furniture retailing, food and alcohol retailing, and data processing and related services also moved lower. In contrast, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.0 percent. The indexes for truck transportation of freight and for apparel wholesaling also increased. (See table 2.)
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent in August, the fourth consecutive advance. Leading the August increase in the index for final demand goods, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 0.3 percent. The index for final demand foods moved up 0.1 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand energy declined 0.4 percent.
Product detail: A major factor in the August increase in the index for final demand goods was a 2.3-percent advance in prices for tobacco products. The indexes for beef and veal; processed poultry; printed circuit assemblies, boards, modules and modems; and electric power also rose. In contrast, prices for utility natural gas decreased 1.8 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables, chicken eggs, and copper base scrap also fell....
....MUCH MORE, tables, narrative, you know the drill.
You may recall fresh and dried vegetables were up 39% in the last report. We didn't highlight it despite the fact foodstuffs are a leading indicator for wider price trends. The veg number is mean-reverting (unless we are experiencing a once-in-a-thousand-year-California-drought) for reasons I don't quite understand and this month's Table 2 showed them down 15.1%. I expect they'll be down again next month.
