Thursday, June 13, 2024

First Solar Received Some Nice Words From Oppenheimer And Baird; IBD Says "Extended" (FSLR)

And Investor's Business Daily says the stock is very extended after the recent run higher.

We pay attention to IBD, In late pre-market trade the stock is down $0.61 (-0.20%) at $300.10.

First up, from Investing.com, June 12:

First Solar shares target raised by Oppenheimer on demand growth

On Wednesday, Oppenheimer adjusted its outlook on First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) shares, raising the price target to $325 from the previous $271 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The revision follows discussions with First Solar's CFO, Alex Bradley, who highlighted factors supporting the company's pricing and demand.

During an investor call, Bradley pointed to stable pricing as a result of clear domestic content guidelines and the initial ruling on its International Trade Commission (ITC) case.

First Solar has observed increased demand, particularly from projects associated with large data center operators, known as hyperscalers, and from longstanding corporate clients seeking domestic solar equipment.

The company's ongoing efforts to expand its manufacturing capabilities are expected to lead to improved pricing and margins. This is attributed to a mix of factors, including the use of non-U.S. modules in U.S. projects, better conversion efficiency of its solar panels, and rising underlying power prices.

Oppenheimer's raised price target reflects the anticipation of enhanced operating leverage for First Solar. The firm foresees the potential for the solar company to outperform expectations due to these positive market dynamics and internal improvements.

In other recent news, First Solar has seen a flurry of activity from financial analysts. Baird maintained an Outperform rating on First Solar and raised the price target to $344, citing the company's superior economics and technology differentiation. Goldman Sachs and BMO Capital also increased their price targets for First Solar to $302 and $311 respectively, with both firms maintaining positive ratings....

....MUCH MORE

And IBD after the close June 12:

Solar Stocks Pop As Inflation Cools But Fed Signal Takes Some Shine Off TAN ETF 

Shares of Enphase Energy (ENPH) tested a buy point on Wednesday while Nextracker (NXT) extended its breakout and First Solar (FSLR) popped to a fresh decade-plus high. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) also rose but closed near session lows.

....First Solar Stock, NextTracker Stock, Enphase Stock

On May 22, a report declaring First Solar stock an AI winner boosted shares of the solar manufacturer. First Solar is now far extended from a 232 buy point cleared on that day, according to MarketSurge pattern recognition. That means shares are not in buy range.

On Wednesday, NextTracker stock advanced 2.3%. The IBD 50 stock topped a 58.49 cup-with-handle buy point on Monday and closed within the 5% chase zone on Wednesday after paring gains....

....MUCH MORE

Our interest in FSLR was rekindled when the extent of their Bidenbucks windfall started to become apparent:

....Here's your fearless forecaster in August:

 "First Solar, The Poster Child For Solar Subsidies Has Had An Awful Month (FSLR)": 

As the Wall Street Journal noted on July 31:

The U.S. Clean-Energy Company That Hit the Subsidies Jackpot

Of all the beneficiaries of the U.S.’s green-energy push, few have hit the jackpot like First Solar. The Arizona-based solar-panel manufacturer expects to receive as much as $710 million this year—nearly 90% of forecast operating profit—from subsidies the U.S. government rolled out a year ago to encourage domestic renewables production. One analyst estimates the incentives could be worth more than $10 billion for the company over the next decade. . .

The company’s shares have more than doubled to $208.40 in Friday trade since the beginning of 2022, despite a string of earnings disappointments during that period.... 

Which led yours truly to opine (a few minute to the open on Aug. 25, previous close $174.42):

As can be seen, the stock traded at $224.50 on July 28.

After the $50.08 (22.3%) decline the stock might be offering itself up for a trade to the long side but not today. In pre-market action the stock can only muster a 33 cent uptick on a day when all three major index futures are up going into the open.

FSLR will be reporting earnings in October so somewhere in the Aug. 28 - Oct. 26 time frame there should be an opportunity but we have no interest on JPow speech day and/or until the stock can find a bottom.

So, not exactly gamboling across the greenswards but perhaps searching for a bottom. 

Well, October 26 was the wrong date for the earnings report. We were relying on Zacks who were relying on their earnings-gonna-be-reported algorithm (seriously). Here is the last three months of price action via BigCharts:

https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=FSLR&uf=0&type=4&size=2&sid=2454742&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=6&rand=1189145679&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

The buyers held off until the very last day before earnings. And that $150-area support area has now become resistance.

And December 27, 2023:
Jackpot: "First Solar to sell up to $700 million in IRA tax credits to Fiserv" (FSLR)

And the earnings posts:

February 27: Earnings: First Solar Beats On Bottom Line, Light On Top, Guides Higher (FSLR)  

After-hours the stock is up $3.01 (+2.08%) at $148.00 and as we said in the outro from yesterday's post

As for our opinion? We have the Go-Go's "We got the beat" cued up.  

The stock is up 71 cents at $143.60.

We'll see if the stock can hold the uptick tomorrow but tonight, we dance:

 February 28: First Solar Stock Jumps 8% (FSLR)

And recently:

"First Solar gets price target lift from Piper Sandler, UBS" (FSLR)

As long-time readers know, we have some history with this one, including pretty much from the IPO to the all-time-high eighteen months later, a period known as "The happy time."

First Solar IPO:......$20.00 Nov. 17, 2006.
Top tick..............$317.00 May 14, 2008.

The GoGo's were on a loop on the squawk box with "We Got The Beat" each earnings report for eighteen months.

We last visited the company dubbed the "poster child for solar subsidies" coming into February's earnings report. Some links below.

First Solar As Meme Stock (FSLR)