Thursday, June 20, 2024

"Bank of America tells Detroit’s Big 3 they can’t make money in China and should just leave the hypercompetitive car market ‘as soon as they possibly can’"

It's not just China. Elon Musk, who seems to have some insight into the industry, says there will be 10 surviving EV manufacturers, 9 of them Chinese.* And if that's the case, and if Western governments continue on their path of outlawing internal combustion engines, just what the heck are the legacy marques going to be powered by?

From Fortune Magazine, June 19:

Detroit automakers General Motors (GM), Ford and Stellantis should abandon the competitive Chinese market “as soon as they possibly can” and focus on the U.S., Bank of America analysts believe.

“We think exiting China from a pure profit and strategic standpoint makes sense, to focus on where you’re making money— which is North American trucks,” John Murphy, BofA auto analyst, said on Tuesday per The Detroit News and CNBC.

Thanks to a longstanding history in China via its century-old Buick brand, GM once minted money in the nation during the 2010s, earning upwards of $2 billion annually at its peak when it sold 4 million vehicles. 

But the rising strength of homegrown rivals like BYD and Geely mean volumes and profits are drying up. GM sales in China dropped to 2.1 million vehicles in 2023, and it posted a loss of $106 million in the past quarter—only its third in 15 years

The situation is even less appetizing at Ford and the former Chrysler group—merged with France’s Peugeot Citroen—now known as Stellantis. The duo have thus far failed to carve out a sustainable and significant share of the local car market, the largest in the world with a record 30 million vehicles sold last year.

As a result, Murphy argued financing losses in China going forward will sap the three carmakers dry. He added they should leave “as soon as they can” in order to redeploy their resources towards developing an EV line-up competitive with Elon Musk’s Tesla.

“Focus on your core,” Murphy said, speaking at an event organized by the Automotive Press Association where he presented the bank’s annual Car Wars report. “And China is no longer a core strategy to GM, Ford or Stellantis.” 

Should all three decide to move out of China entirely, it would leave Musk’s Tesla as the only remaining American car brand competitive in all three major global car markets, which also include North America and Europe.

GM however seems to have no intention of giving Musk or its Chinese competition that satisfaction. A spokesman for the company referred to comments from CEO Mary Barra in April that it remains committed to the market. While it has taken costs out, it is simultaneously adding to new products in China including plug-in hybrids and luxury imports like the Chevy Tahoe and GMC Yukon.

After years of losses in China, including $572 million in 2022, Ford meanwhile says it has now been profitable for the past three straight quarters and also has no plans to leave either.

“Participating in the world’s largest automobile and electric vehicle market provides us with knowledge we’re applying to leading and winning across our global business,” a spokesman for Ford told Fortune.

Detroit cannot catch up to Tesla while still funding losses in China

Chinese carmakers have methodically put the squeeze on weaker western brands, largely by hiring European car designers to create stylish vehicles, built in state-of-the art factories staffed with lower-cost labor. Many brands also now have access to technology developed overseas—either through joint venture transfers or the outright acquisition of western brands like Volvo....

....MUCH MORE
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Here's December 8's "Western Legacy Automakers Probably Won't Be Long-Term Survivors":

Because their current business is being mandated and legislated out of existence the Western marques, barring some serious breakthroughs in small-scale hydrogen or methanol, will have to pivot to EV's. 

And they won't be able to compete.

It almost appears that the gifting of the electric vehicle and solar industries to the Chinese was deliberate.....MUCH MORE