Friday, June 28, 2024

PCE DEflation: "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024"

Press release, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 28:

Personal income income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).

The PCE price index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.5 percent in May and real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.1 percent (tables 3 and 4).....

Price indexes:  
     PCE 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0
     PCE, excluding food and energy 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
     PCE 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6
     PCE, excluding food and energy 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6

....Prices

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May decreased less than 0.1 percent (table 5). Prices for goods decreased 0.4 percent and prices for services increased 0.2 percent. Food prices increased 0.1 percent and energy prices decreased 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Detailed monthly PCE price indexes can be found on Table 2.4.4U.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 2.6 percent (table 7). Prices for goods decreased 0.1 percent and prices for services increased 3.9 percent. Food prices increased 1.2 percent and energy prices increased 4.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago....

....MUCH MORE

Complete release (tables, narrative) 10 page PDF 

For what it's worth the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast had PCE ticking up 0.07% for the month, core PCE up 0.10% with both measures expected to resume their ascent when the June numbers are released next month.