Jumping right into the gut of the argument, from TradingPlaces at StockCharts, May 19:
....Inflation Likely To Climb This Summer
There's like to be a few negative/bearish analyst comments this summer. The reason? In 2023, the June (+0.19%), July (+0.23%), and August (+0.23%) represented the 3 lowest monthly core CPI readings. That means that these monthly readings in the same 3 months as 2023 will need to come in extremely low or there'll be brief 3-month spike in the annual core rate of inflation at the consumer level. We know the stock market doesn't like uncertainty of any kind and a 3-month move higher in inflation could trigger that uncertainty.
Keep in mind that the June, July, and August readings are generally reported within the first 10 days to 2 weeks of the following month. So if we see weakness from these readings, it'll likely be from mid-July through mid-September....
....MUCH MORE
The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast is looking for a .11% monthly headline figure to be reported next month as the housing component turns down. That would result in a 3.39% year-over-year rate.
Assuming the monthly figures in the post above are correct (I didn't check), even with the slowdown in the rate of ascent in housing costs we won't see headline CPI fall under 3% before the election.
And then? Here's the outro from May 10's "USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Food Inflation Down The Road":
These won't show up in the CPI or PCE deflator for months so in the meantime we should get a nice little inflation headfake lower from the housing component of the indices; setting up the next Presidential administration for a real mess in 2025 and 2026.
