From Farm Progress, May 10, 2024:
Wheat wins May 2024 WASDECorn, soybean markets brush off May 2024 WASDE data only to reap gains following report’s release.
The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is one of the biggest reports USDA publishes throughout the year. It provides a first look at new crop marketing year production, supplies, and usage estimates, updated U.S. winter wheat production estimates, as well as usage revisions for domestic balance sheets and modifications to South American crops currently being harvested.
But for all the build-up surrounding today’s May 2024 WASDE, the markets initially yawned off USDA’s findings. U.S. supplies of corn, soybean, and wheat are expected to balloon in the upcoming marketing year, but slight increases to current marketing year domestic usage are helping to offset any concerns about bearish prices.
Shrinking global wheat stocks headed into the 2024/25 marketing year helped fuel rallies in the wheat market. A 4% annual decline in Russian production due to drought and recent frost damage compounded with production cuts in Ukraine and the European Union to signal supply tightening ahead for global wheat buyers.
USDA made downward revisions to Argentine corn and Brazilian corn and soybean harvests, though the Argentine corn and Brazilian soybean cuts were smaller than the market had been hoping. Both countries have been battling disease, pests and weather problems in recent weeks that will likely limit yields.
Corn
USDA’s latest outlook for corn includes “larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks.” The agency expects 2024 corn production to reach 14.9 billion bushels, which Is 3% below last season’s record-breaking effort. Yields are now expected to reach 181.0 million bushels per acre, which USDA attributes to “a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.”....
....MUCH MORE
From the U.S. Department of Agriculture, May 10:
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
And the last three months of price action in the futures:
All via FinViz (also on blogroll at right.
These won't show up in the CPI or PCE deflator for months so in the meantime we should get a nice little inflation headfake lower from the housing component of the indices; setting up the next Presidential administration for a real mess in 2025 and 2026.
