From the re/insurance, cat-bond mavens at Artemis, May 8:
With the development of La Nina conditions anticipated during this summer and its persistence through the autumn, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has called for the Northwest Pacific typhoon season to see activity levels around 20% below normal, albeit still with 15 typhoons, 7 of which are forecast to be intense.
The expectation that La Nina conditions will develop during summer and persist through autumn is the key driver here, as it was for Tropical Storm Risk’s forecast for a very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.
Just as the change from El Nino to La Nina would be expected to make the Atlantic more conducive to hurricane formation, the opposite is the case in the Northwest Pacific basin.
As a result, TSR said that it predicts the Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see below average activity, around 20% below the 1991-2020 climate norm, during the 2024 season....
....MUCH MORE
Because we come at this stuff from the insurance and energy angles we
tend to focus on the Atlantic basin and the Gulf of Mexico.
Once in a while however...
These Pacific monsters make a lie of the ocean's name.
They can be truly terrifying. Super Typhoon Tip, in addition to being immense, also had 190 mph winds:
Here's 1979's Super Typhoon Tip:
The combination of size and strength can be very destructive.
There are stories of fleets destroyed by these storms that go back
centuries. Kublai Khan's attempted invasions of Japan in 1274 and 1281
were probably thwarted by "kamikaze" (divine wind).
In December 1944 U.S. Admiral Halsey tried to beat past Typhoon Cobra and suffered some large losses:
"...three destroyers, the Spence, Hickox, and Maddox, capsized and sank in the high seas. Nine other ships were substantially damaged and over 100 aircraft were lost. 790 men were killed in the typhoon, but 93 sailors were rescued from the sea...." More after the jump.**
** Via Wikipedia's Typhoon Cobra page:
...3rd Fleet damage
- USS Hull - with 70% fuel aboard, capsized and sunk with 202 men drowned (62 survivors)[3]
- USS Monaghan - capsized and sunk with 256 men drowned (six survivors)[3]
- USS Spence - rudder jammed hard to starboard, capsized and sunk with 317 men drowned (23 survivors) after hoses parted attempting to refuel from New Jersey because they had also disobeyed orders to ballast down directly from Admiral Halsey[3]
- USS Cowpens - hangar door torn open and RADAR, 20mm gun sponson, whaleboat, jeeps, tractors, kerry crane, and 8 aircraft lost overboard. One sailor lost.[3]
- USS Monterey - hangar deck fire killed three men and caused evacuation of boiler rooms requiring repairs at Bremerton Navy yard[3]
- USS Langley - damaged[3]
- USS Cabot - damaged[4]
- USS San Jacinto - hangar deck planes broke loose and destroyed air intakes, vent ducts and sprinkling system causing widespread flooding.[3] Damage repaired by USS Hector[5]
- USS Altamaha - hangar deck crane and aircraft broke loose and broke fire mains[3]
- USS Anzio - required major repair[3]
- USS Nehenta - damaged[4]
- USS Cape Esperance - flight deck fire required major repair[3]
- USS Kwajalein - lost steering control[3]
- USS Iowa - propeller shaft bent and lost a seaplane
- USS Baltimore - required major repair[3]
- USS Miami - required major repair[3]
- USS Dewey - lost steering control, RADAR, the forward stack, and all power when salt water shorted main electrical switchboard[3]
- USS Aylwin - required major repair[3]
- USS Buchanan - required major repair[3]
- USS Dyson - required major repair[3]
- USS Hickox - required major repair[3]
- USS Maddox - damaged[4]
- USS Benham - required major repair[3]
- USS Donaldson - required major repair[3]
- USS Melvin R. Nawman - required major repair[3]
- USS Tabberer - lost foremast[6]
- USS Waterman - damaged[4]
- USS Nantahala - damaged[4]
- USS Jicarilla - damaged[4]
- USS Shasta - damaged "one deck collapsed, aircraft engines damaged, depth charges broke loose, damaged "
A lot of energy in those Pacific storms.
