Thursday, May 23, 2024

Capital Markets: "After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. 

Favorable guidance by Nvidia is helping lift US index futures today, especially the NASDAQ. Most Asia Pacific equity market rallied today, led by Japan and India. Chinese and Hong Kong indices over 1%, and South Korea and Australian indices eased. The Stoxx 600 in Europe is rising for the first time since Monday. Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed today. Of note, the 10-year JGB yield slipped back below 1.0%. Most European bonds are +/- less than a basis point but after yesterday's sell-off Gilts are better bid today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off almost one basis point to near 4.41%. Gold is off for the third consecutive session. It approached $2355, slightly ahead of the 20-day moving average (~$2350). July WTI extended yesterday's loss and reached $76.85 before catching a bid and has bounced back to almost $78. It could be the first advance this week.... 

....America
Three data points from the US stand out today. 
First, weekly jobless claims have been elevated in the last couple of weeks, and the narrative around it is school employees in California and Illinois. While we think the labor market is gradually slowing, the risk is that April overstated the case. The early estimates for May nonfarm payrolls are around 225k (175k in April). Second....

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