For last week's report we headlined the draw from storage/market reaction with "EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: Can This Be Right?" and then made the declarative:
Looking for a chance to go long, 2.8900 last.
It doesn't always work out when you think the crowd is misreading events—the storage reports are backward looking and the weather reports are forward and the two directions should never be confused— and because of the inherent leverage of the contracts, $3,150 initial margin controls (at the moment) $31,000 worth of gas so that on a directional bet a 10% move doubles your money or wipes you out.
Fortunately the contract got to 3.3170 yesterday meaning the 14.7% move was in the right direction giving ample room to run and the margin clerks didn't interrupt whatever you were up to with that harshest of realities, variation margin or you are sold out.
And now for today's report, no action, you don't have to be at the market every minute. 3.119 3.0870 last.
First up, the estimates going in from FX Empire:
...The EIA is projected to reveal a withdrawal potentially greater than 250 Bcf for the week-ending February 12, which would be the largest pull of the season so far, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported.
According to NGI, a Reuters poll of 18 analysts is calling for estimates ranging from 288 Bcf to 202 Bcf, with a median decrease of 250 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal estimates were in the same range, with a median of 251 Bcf decline. NGI’s model projects a 286 Bcf pull....
And the report from the Energy Information Administration:
Working gas in storage was 2,281 Bcf as of Friday, February 12, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 237 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 105 Bcf less than last year at this time and 57 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,224 Bcf. At 2,281 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Finally, from the CME the price action over the last week (30 minute candles):
