From the Energy Information Administration:
for week ending February 17, 2021 | Release date: February 18, 2021
In the News:
Freeze-offs contribute to lower natural gas production, higher natural gas prices
In the wake of record-low temperatures affecting most of the country, dry natural gas production in the United States fell by 21.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), declining from 90.7 Bcf/d on February 8 to about 69.7 Bcf/d on February 17, according to data from IHS Markit. The decline in natural gas production is primarily because of freeze-offs, which occur when water and other liquids found in produced raw natural gas freeze at the wellhead and/or potentially in natural gas gathering lines near production activities, resulting in flow blockage. A large portion of the decrease in natural gas production was from declines in Texas, which fell over 10 Bcf/d during the February 8–17 period. Unlike natural gas production infrastructure in northern areas of the country where below-freezing temperatures are more common and infrastructure is generally winterized, wellheads, gathering lines, and even processing facilities in Texas are more susceptible to freeze-offs during periods of extremely cold weather.
Unusually strong winter season heating and power demand for natural gas, combined with the sudden decrease in natural gas production, led to large price increases at many natural gas hubs this week. The price of natural gas at the Waha Hub, near natural gas production activities in the Permian Basin, rose to over $206 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on February 16, according to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), the highest reported price at the Waha Hub since at least 1995. The price at the Chicago Citygate also reached an all-time high of nearly $130/MMBtu on February 12. Prices at the Oneok Gas Transmission (OGT) pipeline in Oklahoma averaged $1,192/MMBtu on February 17, the highest in the country according to NGI.
The cascading effects of the supply/demand imbalance resulted in upward price pressures in some demand markets less affected by the recent cold weather. For example, the price at SoCal Citygate, in Southern California, which receives a significant amount of natural gas from the Permian Basin production region, reached a record high $144/MMBtu despite temperatures in Los Angeles being near normal over the past several days.
In Texas, the cold temperatures have had a significant impact on the electric grid, including the loss of available generating capacity. The loss of generating capacity led the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to enter emergency conditions and initiate rotating blackouts to shed 10,500 MW of load, the equivalent of nearly two million homes. As of February 18 morning, nearly 40,000 MW of generation remains off the system: 23,500 MW is thermal and 16,500 MW is wind and solar, according to ERCOT.
Overview:
(For the week ending Wednesday, February 17, 2021)
- In response to record-breaking low temperatures across most of the Lower 48 states, and production losses as far south as the Gulf Coast, natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, February 10 to Wednesday, February 17). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $3.68 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $23.61/MMBtu yesterday, the highest nominal price going back to at least 1993. In real terms (adjusted for inflation), yesterday’s price is the highest price since February 2003....
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