Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Our Finny Friends: "Coronavirus slashes Scottish salmon exports by a third"

Now we like Rabobank and think that overall they have the best analyst coverage of the agricultural sector, including seafood, but in the second link below they seem too optimistic.

Two from The Fish Site:
Coronavirus slashes Scottish salmon exports by a third
The coronavirus pandemic led to a 32 percent drop in Scottish salmon exports in February, although the sector is trying to adapt to the ever-changing COVID-19-related restrictions.

The latest HMRC figures for exports in February 2020 show a drop of 2,700 tonnes compared to the same month last year. Valued at £32 million, this represented a decline of 32 per cent on February 2019.

Exports to Asia accounted for the majority of the decline, with volumes only just exceeding 200 tonnes in February, down by 1,360 tonnes (-87 per cent) compared with the previous year’s figures. As a result, exports to Asia accounted for only around 4 per cent of total volumes and 5 per cent of value – down from around 25 per cent of each - as logistics became more complex and food service and consumer demand fell.

However, the sector did see a slight increase the value of its exports to Europe, which rose by 3 percent, despite volumes dropping by 10 per cent....MORE
And:
How COVID-19 is impacting the global salmon and shrimp sectors
The salmon and shrimp sectors have been affected very differently by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, according to Gorjan Nikolik, senior seafood analyst at Rabobank.
Salmon stays steady “Salmon is the safe haven of the seafood industry and has been impacted less than other sectors,” explains Nikolik.

“In Norway the forecast was for fairly limited growth – of about 3-4 percent – in the sector during 2020. Prices were very high in Q1, at over NOK 70 per kilo, and producers have benefitted from several strong years of prices, making the sector fairly resilient,” he notes.

“In Europe, which accounts for 50 percent of salmon consumption globally, most of the business lost from the foodservice sector has been taken up by retail sales. However, the decline in exports to China and the US from the pandemic has led to an oversupply in Europe and a corresponding drop in prices from almost NOK 80 in January to around NOK 54 last week. But, in historical terms, this is still a reasonable price and, importantly, it still covers the production costs,” Nikolik explains....
....MUCH MORE

See also, April 16:
"Seafood Market Craters After Restaurants Shuttered Worldwide"

And three prior visits to Rabobank:
March 12, 2020 
Rabobank: "Coronavirus—a seafood analyst’s perspective"
January 19, 2020
Rabobank Revises Salmon, Shrimp, Fishmeal Forecasts
 October 2019
Rabobank Weighs In On Aquaculture
Specifically the smaller footprint recirculating systems....