Sunday, April 26, 2020

Shipping/Oil: "VLCCs: Rates Rocket Upwards on Strong Demand" (NAT; FRO; EURN; TNK)

Following on the earlier post about the father of the supertanker, here's how things are doing now.
From Hellenic Shipping News:
The week got off to a slow start, then on Tuesday activity ramped up with an influx of cargoes causing rates to rocket upwards. However, by the end of the week the trajectory was downwards, with heavy pressure being applied.

In the Middle East, 280,000mt to the US Gulf via the Cape to Cape routing is now rated at WS110, having peaked at WS125, this still represents a rise of about 18 points week-on-week. For 270,000mt to China, rates peaked at WS195/197.5 level. They are currently at mid WS160s, again a rise of 15-17.5 points since a week ago. In the 260,000mt West Africa to China market a similar story unfolded, with rates peaking at W177.5/180 level. This was before falling back to mid WS150s, up 15-17.5 points from last week. There was minimal enquiry for the 270,000mt US Gulf to China route and rates are being assessed now at just over $16m. This is a rise from just under $14m last week, with only one notable fixture of a Columbia to China trip at $15.5m.

Suezmax
The market for 130,000mt West Africa to the UK-Continent had a much more adventurous week than in previous weeks. Rates were rapidly firming in the early part of the week, moving 50 points to low WS180s. A mirrored effect took place in the 135,000mt Black Sea to Mediterranean trade, with rates gaining 45 points to mid WS180s. The 140,000mt Basrah to Mediterranean route also gained traction and moved sharply upwards, with rates now at WS155, up 45-47.5 points over the week.

Aframax
A much more positive week in this sector. Rates for 80,000mt Ceyhan to the Mediterranean almost doubled, now being assessed at high WS220s, showing a gain of 120 points. In Northern Europe owners played a waiting game, which worked in their favour. Rates for 80,000mt cross-North Sea are now close to WS240, up 75 points. The 100,000mt Baltic to UK-Continent trade gained about 67 points to WS207.5/210 level. Across the Atlantic the market for 70,000mt Caribbean to the US Gulf has been boosted to WS200, a rise of 75 points....
....MORE
And what does it all mean?
From CNBC, April 24: 

‘We are making a lot of money at this time,’ Nordic American Tankers CEO says
  • “We are making a lot of money at this time, improving our balance sheet tremendously, and I have never seen such a strong market,” Nordic American Tankers CEO Herbjørn Hansson told CNBC.
  • “We don’t speculate in oil. We speculate in carrying oil and that’s a different story. And my point is that I prioritize dividends,” he said in a “Mad Money” interview.
Oil tanker companies have watched their stocks climb  as the crude market toiled in recent weeks.
And business, according to the founder and head of Nordic American Tankers, business is better than ever.

“We are making a lot of money at this time, improving our balance sheet tremendously, and I have never seen such a strong market,” Herbjørn Hansson, CEO of the Bermuda-based tanker company, told CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a “Mad Money” interview. “And I’ve been around for a little while.”
Nordic was the third-largest player in the market at the end of 2019.

Amid a glut of global supply and a global coronavirus pandemic that has sapped consumer demand for energy, crude prices have collapsed this year. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for the first time fell into negative territory Monday when the May contract traded in the red as low as $37 per barrel....MORE
note: NAT was not on our list of  investable tanker operators because their balance sheet was pretty sketchy. They did some recapitalization work earlier this year and as always seems to happen the stock doubled as I was looking away.
For what it's worth the press releases are flamboyant enough to make one think a stock offering might be on the way.