Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 10, 2019.
Grain Markets are higher overnight on another session of low volume and little fund activity. Weather still remains non-threatening in most areas with moderate temps. Traders are cautiously putting positions on and off as the USDA supply/demand report quickly approaches this Thursday morning.
....MUCH MOREUSDA weekly crop progress showed a surprising corn condition rating at 55% GTE (58% GTE expected, 58% GTE last week, 72% 5-year average). Soybean condition rating remained at 55% GTE (55% GTE expected, 55% GTE last week, 68% 5-year average). Spring wheat harvest was 71% complete (69% expected, 55% last week, 86% last year).U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin said he did not see the threat of a recession as the Trump administration seeks to revive trade negotiations with China and he expects a positive year ahead for the U.S. economy. “We have a document, we’ve made a lot of progress, they’re coming here, I take that as a sign of good faith that they want to continue to negotiate. And we’re prepared to negotiate. If we get a good deal, a deal that’s good for us, we’ll sign it. If not the president is perfectly fine with continuing the tariffs”, he said.
September USDA Supply/Demand report will be released this Thursday at 11 a.m. CDT. Trade is looking for corn production of 13.672 billion bu. (13.901 billion bu. last month) and soybean production at 3.577 billion bu. (3.680 billion bu. last month). Old crop stocks calling for corn production to be 41 million bu. higher and soybean production to be 16 million bu. lower than last month. USDA will also update 2019 prevent plant acres on the September report estimated at 19.8 million acres (300,000 thousand acres more than last report)....
note - in the piece below the openness of China to more ag imports was first mooted in late August i.e. although the SCMP reported it yesterday it is actually old news.
And at Allendale September 11:
Movement on Trade Talks?
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 11, 2019. We're honoring Patriot Day today!
Grain markets are mixed as traders wait for the release of USDA's Supply and Demand report tomorrow. The yield estimates on this report will be watched closely as the data will include USDA field checks for the first time this year, mixed with their usual farmer survey.
Reuters compiled average analyst estimates for tomorrow's USDA report. For corn, analysts expect to see yield at 167.2 bushels per acre with production at 13.672. Soybean yield is expected at 47.2 bpa with production at 3.577.
The South China Morning Post reports that, "China is expected to agree to buy more American agricultural products in hopes of a better trade deal with the United States as the two nations prepare for a meeting between their top negotiators next month." It is not the first time we have seen this type of headline, however.
Conab estimates Brazil corn crop at 99.984 million tonnes, up from their previous estimate of 99.312. They see soybeans at 115.030 million tonnes, down slightly from 115.072. Corn exports were estimated at 35.000 million tonnes from 34.500, while soybeans were left unchanged at 70 (for 2018/19).
The French Farm Ministry estimates the country's soft wheat harvest at 39.45 million tonnes, up from last month's estimate of 38.2. If realized, this would be France's second largest wheat crop ever.China's State Council indicated it wanted large scale hog farms to make up 58% of all farms by 2020. The government is encouraging larger farms under the belief they are more efficient as well as a lower risk of disease transmission.China will allow the import of soymeal livestock feed from Argentina for the first time under a deal announced by Buenos Aires on Tuesday, an agreement that will link the world's top exporter of the feed with the top global consumer. (Reuters)....
....MUCH MORE
