Friday, September 27, 2019

Hurricane Lorenzo Now in "Beast Mode" As It Aims For Ireland, Scotland,Tromsø

More seriously the Azores could be in trouble with just a small shift in the storm track.
From Weather Underground's Cat 6 blog:

Tropical Storm Karen Struggling; Category 4 Lorenzo in Beast Mode
September 26, 2019, 2:23 PM EDT 

...Beastly Lorenzo churns in the Central Atlantic
Hurricane Lorenzo put on spectacular show of rapid intensification rarely seen in the Central Atlantic, vaulting to Category 4 strength with 130 mph winds at 11 am EDT Thursday. Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic; according to NHC, the only comparable hurricane in recent times near Lorenzo’s location was Gabrielle of 1989, which peaked as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at 55.7°W. Only one hurricane on record has reached Category 4 strength farther east than the 40.2°W longitude that Lorenzo did so at—Hurricane Julia of 2010, which hit Cat 4 strength at 32.2°W.

Lorenzo’s ascension to major hurricane status gives the Atlantic 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 91 so far in 2019. An average season typically has 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 78 by September 26, so this season is above-average for activity in all metrics.

With light wind shear (near 5 knots) and warm sea-surface temperatures near 27 – 27.5°C (81 - 82°F) expected through Friday night, Lorenzo has the opportunity to strengthen further, and satellite images from Thursday afternoon showed the storm was likely growing even more intense. From a thermodynamic standpoint, the maximum potential intensity Lorenzo can reach is likely 145 – 155 mph—at the upper end of the Category 4 range....MORE
The storm has intensified since that report with winds now at 145 mph.
And from the National Hurricane Center:
5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27
Location: 18.6°N 42.1°W
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 937 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

cone graphic